On November 13, 2026, the global population was predicted to reach infinity according to a 1960 research paper published in the journal “Science.” With less than a month left until this date, demographers are explaining why this prediction missed the mark.
The paper, authored by physicist Heinz von Foerster from the University of Illinois, along with students Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot, was published on November 4, 1960. Titled “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026,” the paper utilized mathematical curves to estimate historical global population figures.
Over the past 2,000 years, the research team collected 24 estimates of world population. Based on this data, they projected that population growth would hit a mathematical “wall” around November 13, 2026, with a margin of error of approximately 5 years. The paper stated that future generations would not die of starvation but would be “squeezed to death.”
Von Foerster’s core assumption was that unlike other species, the more people there are, the more they cooperate and innovate, leading to an accelerating population growth towards infinity.
Joel Cohen, a mathematical biologist at Rockefeller University, acknowledged von Foerster’s accurate description of past trends but pointed out that by the time the model was proposed, the trend had already begun to change. He mentioned that the peak global population growth rate occurred in the early 1960s, a fact unknown at that time.
According to UN data, the global population growth rate peaked at around 2.28% in 1963 and has gradually slowed since then. The UN’s 2022 report indicated that the global population growth rate fell below 1% in 2020, the slowest pace since 1950.
In his book “How Many People Can the Earth Support?” published in 1995, Cohen delves into these population dynamics.
Dean Spears, an economic demographer at the University of Texas, explained to Popular Science that the rapid population growth was primarily due to improved survival rates rather than increased fertility. Advances in bacteriology, public health, and nutrition have led to higher infant survival rates.
Spears believed that von Foerster’s assumption of “infinite acceleration” stemmed from a misunderstanding of the sources of population growth.
The concerns of overpopulation can be traced back to Thomas Malthus, a British economist (1766-1834), who argued that population growth would surpass food supply, leading to famine. In contrast, von Foerster believed that human creativity could ensure food supply, with the real issue lying in the continuous acceleration of population growth.
In the late 20th century, several factors contributed to a significant slowdown in population growth:
1. The “Green Revolution” increased food production per unit of land.
2. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the contraceptive pill Enovid for birth control in May 1960.
3. Urbanization from rural areas to cities.
4. Increased opportunities for education and employment for women.
Various countries have implemented population control measures, such as China’s one-child policy introduced in 1979 and India’s forced sterilization campaign from 1975 to 1977. Spears indicated that even without these coercive policies, fertility rates would likely have declined.
Countries like South Korea, Japan, and several Western European nations are currently grappling with declining birth rates, shifting the focus of demography from overpopulation concerns to issues of low birth rates and aging populations.