The first strong nor’easter storm of autumn, originally predicted to possibly “brush past,” is now posing an expanding threat as per the latest meteorological models.
The meteorological agency initially forecasted the storm’s core to pass eastward, suggesting that New York City might escape the most intense impacts. However, the latest simulations from various weather models (including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF and the US GFS model) indicate a westward shift in the storm’s path. This means that the likelihood of New York City, Long Island, and the New Jersey coast facing strong winds and heavy rains has significantly increased.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS) and AccuWeather’s latest forecast revisions, the core movement of the weekend storm is as follows:
1. Westward Turn in Path:
The latest models indicate that after rapid intensification over the Gulf of Mexico warm waters, the low-pressure system is expected to approach the US East Coast between Friday (25th) and Saturday (26th) and may linger and veer towards the southeast side of Long Island. Due to the blocking high-pressure ridge, the storm system could “whip back” towards New York City and the New Jersey coast.
2. Intensification of Rainfall and Wind Speeds:
With the westward shift of the rain band, rainfall amounts are projected to increase to over 2 inches in the five boroughs of New York City (especially Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island) and across all of Long Island, with the eastern tip possibly receiving 4 to 5 inches; coastal gusts are expected to reach 50 to 60 mph, with offshore areas experiencing gusts up to 70 mph.
3. Subtropical Storm Characteristics:
Meteorologists point out that due to the storm lingering over the unusually warm Gulf Stream and absorbing heat, it is gradually transforming into a “Subtropical storm” with both temperate and tropical features. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not rule out formally naming it within the next 24 hours.
Aside from strong winds and heavy rains, as Saturday coincides with a full moon high tide, the persistent strong southeast winds will push a large amount of seawater towards the shore.
Areas at high risk of flooding include the south coast of Staten Island, the north and south coasts of Long Island, and the New Jersey coast, with wave heights expected to be 1 to 3 feet above normal levels, reaching up to 12 feet. Moderate coastal flooding may occur during the high tide periods from Friday to Saturday.
Due to the softened soil from the rain and the trees not yet shedding leaves (top-heavy), strong winds are highly likely to cause roadside trees to topple and bring down power lines. It is anticipated that sporadic power outages may occur in parts of New York City and Long Island.
Here is the weather outlook for the upcoming days:
– Friday (September 25): Outer rain bands and strong winds will gradually arrive; coastal low-lying areas will experience inundation during the high tide periods.
– Saturday will see the peak of the storm with strong winds and heavy rain throughout the day, making it unsuitable for outdoor activities or visits to the beach.
– Sunday will see a slow weakening of the storm as it begins moving north, but coastal areas will still experience residual gusts and large waves.
– By Monday, the weather is expected to stabilize, and transportation will gradually return to normal.
The meteorological department reminds the public to secure or store outdoor furniture, trash cans, and decorations on balconies and in yards before Friday noon; residents in low-lying coastal areas should park their vehicles in high places and avoid driving towards coastal highways during high tide over the weekend.