Weather experts in Taiwan stated today (6th) that Typhoon “Baihaidai” is estimated to pass near the Ryukyu Islands of Japan on the 7th and enter the southern East China Sea on the 8th, where its northern turn could determine the level of threat to Taiwan.
The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan reported that as of 8 a.m. today (6th), the center of the typhoon was located at 26.3 degrees north latitude and 133.6 degrees east longitude, moving westward at a speed of 17 kilometers per hour. The central pressure is 945 hPa, with maximum sustained wind speeds near the center at 43 meters per second and maximum gusts at 53 meters per second. The radius of strong winds of Beaufort Scale 7 extends up to 320 kilometers (340 kilometers on the northwest side, 340 kilometers on the northeast side, 310 kilometers on the southwest side, and 300 kilometers on the southeast side), while the radius of typhoon winds of Beaufort Scale 10 extends up to 150 kilometers (160 kilometers on the northwest side, 160 kilometers on the northeast side, 140 kilometers on the southwest side, and 130 kilometers on the southeast side).
Associate Professor Wu Derong from the Department of Atmospheric Science at National Central University in Taiwan mentioned in the “Heavenly Machine Classroom” column of the Meteorological Application Promotion Foundation that Typhoon No. 13, “Baihaidai,” remains a large-scale typhoon moving in a westward direction. It is forecasted to pass near the Ryukyu Islands on the 7th and enter the southern East China Sea on the 8th, with a decrease in speed and gradually turning northward, leading to increased uncertainty.
The Japan Meteorological Agency predicted that Typhoon Baihaidai will come closest to the Okinawa main island by tonight and approach Okinawa Island on the afternoon of the 7th. The storm circle is expected to affect Okinawa Island early on the 7th. The typhoon has already disrupted local flights and maritime routes. The disaster prevention website of Okinawa Prefecture stated that as of the afternoon of the 5th, 22 households totaling 23 people have evacuated to shelters in Kita-Daitō Village.
Wu Derong mentioned that Tropical Depression No. 14, “Whale,” is currently in the waters west of Luzon in the Philippines, about to make landfall on Luzon and weaken into a tropical low pressure system. Tropical Depression No. 15, “Changhong,” is moving northwest and heading towards the eastern waters of Japan, but the three typhoons do not have conditions for “dancing together.”
Wu Derong also explained that the latest European model simulations show differing paths for Typhoon “Baihaidai” starting from the 8th as the weakening speed of the northern high pressure system varies, resulting in differences in the westward trend and the northward position, which are key factors defining the level of threat to Taiwan. If it approaches China before turning back, the impact on Taiwan would be greater; if it turns north upon entering the East China Sea, the impact would be minimal.
Furthermore, according to Wu Derong, the latest European model simulations indicate that near Taiwan today, there will be a shift to northeasterly winds, bringing brief localized showers to northern areas against the wind and localized thunderstorms in the mountainous regions of central and southern Taiwan in the afternoon, affecting some low-lying areas. The weather across the island will remain mostly sunny and hot.
Wu Derong added that before the 9th, the circulation of Baihaidai would gradually pass through the northern waters of Taiwan, resulting in brief localized showers in northern and central-southern Taiwan on the 7th, with increased rainfall on the 8th and 9th, a slight cooling down, and extreme heat in the eastern regions due to downslope winds over the mountains. People should be cautious of stronger gusts in various areas.
Regarding the weather from the 10th to the 12th, as the typhoon moves away, Taiwan will experience southwestern winds, leading to localized showers or thunderstorms in the southwest against the wind and heavy rainfall. Other regions will be sunny and hot, with the caution against extreme heat in the north and southeast. Due to unstable atmospheric conditions, there will be localized afternoon thunderstorms in the northern parts. From the 13th to the 15th, as southwestern winds weaken with abundant moisture, there will still be morning rainfall and afternoon showers in the southwest and mountainous regions.