The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States released its 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook on Thursday, October 15, providing predictions on the climate conditions for the coming months. According to this outlook, there will be vastly different weather patterns across the United States, with the northern regions experiencing warmer and drier conditions than usual, while the southern areas will have temperatures close to normal levels with above-average precipitation.
This report was published by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a subsidiary of NOAA. Forecasters at the center indicated that a very strong El Niño event is expected to be the primary influencing factor on the U.S. weather this winter.
The outlook covers the period from December 2026 to February 2027, which is considered meteorological winter. It predicts general weather patterns for these three months, including aspects like temperature, precipitation, and drought.
The strong El Niño event is expected to result in temperatures higher than the average in many regions. NOAA’s forecast suggests that from November 2026 to January 2027, this scenario is most likely to occur in the northern half of the continental United States, starting from the Pacific Northwest, stretching eastward along the Canadian border, crossing through the Midwest, moving eastward into the Ohio Valley, and extending northward to the New England area.
Meanwhile, in the southern half of the continental United States, including states like Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, and California, there is no clear trend towards warmer temperatures observed this fall. This doesn’t necessarily mean colder weather, but rather indicates uncertain weather prospects for the upcoming winter. The likelihood of above-average, below-average, or near-average temperatures is equally possible in these states this winter.
According to the latest Winter Outlook report, in many states where temperatures are expected to be higher, there is also a higher likelihood of dry weather. In a large W-shaped region encompassing parts of California extending to Florida and northward to New England, along with some areas in the central Plains, precipitation is expected to be above the average levels. The Gulf Coast of Florida, along with adjacent areas, the East Coast, Southern California, Arizona, have the highest probability of experiencing above-average precipitation.
At the same time, some parts in Montana, Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Alaska are most likely to experience a dry winter.
According to the U.S. Winter Outlook, drought conditions in the southwestern U.S., southern Great Plains, southeastern U.S., and parts of the East Coast are expected to improve or end.
However, in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon, and eastern Washington, drought conditions are more likely to develop or worsen.