On the night of June 12 (Friday), many southern regions of mainland China have entered a new round of concentrated heavy rainfall. Over the next week, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Yunnan, and other areas are expected to experience heavy to torrential rain, with some areas experiencing severe rainstorms and locally torrential rainfall. Northern and northeastern China will also see thunderstorms in the coming days.
According to China Weather Net’s report on June 12, the southern regions have entered a period of concentrated heavy rainfall, with significant intensification of rainfall on June 13 and 14. Regions such as Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Fujian are experiencing heavy to torrential rain, with local occurrences of severe rainstorms.
From the night of June 12 to the 18th, regions including large parts of Guangdong and Guangxi, western Fujian, southwestern Zhejiang, eastern and southern Jiangxi, southern Hunan, southeastern Guizhou, northwestern and southern Yunnan, and southeastern Tibet will experience heavy to torrential rain, with some areas even facing severe local rainstorms and thunderstorms.
On June 13, cold air will move south, causing a convergence of cold and warm air in the Jiangnan and South China regions, leading to a significant increase in rainfall. Southern parts of Hunan, central and southern Jiangxi, southern Zhejiang, Fujian, northern Guangdong, and large parts of Guangxi will experience heavy to torrential rain, with some areas in Guangxi and Jiangxi facing severe rainstorms.
On June 14, regions such as South China and southern Jiangnan will continue to experience heavy rainfall, with some areas in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Jiangxi facing heavy to torrential rain, and locally severe rainstorms.
Multiple Chinese media outlets have reported that this round of rainfall will be prolonged and with significant accumulation, potentially surpassing historical records in some areas. Regions like Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Yunnan, and southeastern Tibet face a higher risk of flash floods, geological disasters, flooding of small to medium-sized rivers, and urban waterlogging.
Since the beginning of the rainy season in the southern regions of mainland China, there has been frequent heavy rainfall and overlapping rain areas in some places. The China Meteorological Administration reported that from April 1 to present, the national average precipitation has been 157.4 millimeters, 12.2% higher than usual for this period, the second highest in the past ten years. There have been 12 regional severe rain events in the southern regions, with six occurring since mid-May, mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou.
While the southern regions have seen increased rainfall, some northern areas are also experiencing thunderstorms. According to China Weather Net, in the next three days, regions like North China, eastern Huanghuai, Northeast China, and southeastern Inner Mongolia will see showers or thunderstorms.
Rainfall distribution in these regions is uneven, generally ranging from light to moderate rain, with some areas experiencing heavy to torrential rain accompanied by thunderstorm winds or hail. Rapid weather changes are expected in parts of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and northeastern China.
Due to the influence of cold air and rainfall, temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius in northeastern, North China, and Jiangnan regions will decrease, but areas like Henan and Xinjiang will still experience frequent hot weather.
With the increased heavy rainfall in the southern regions, there is growing concern about the onset of the rainy season. According to the 21st Century Business Herald, the usual onset of the rainy season in Jiangnan is June 9, while it is June 14 for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This year, due to the unstable position of the subtropical high-pressure system, conditions resembling the rainy season were present in May, although the moisture levels did not meet the standard. Additionally, in early June, the abnormal activity of a northeastern cold vortex caused the main rain belt to shift south, delaying the onset of the rainy season in Jiangnan and surrounding areas.
It is forecasted that from June 18 onwards, the main rain belt will periodically move northward to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This will lead to moderate to heavy rainfall in southern parts of Jiangsu and Anhui, eastern Hubei, western and northern Jiangnan, central and western South China, Yunnan, and Guizhou, with some areas experiencing heavy or severe rainstorms. This shift may mark the beginning of the rainy season in Jiangnan.