On Tuesday, June 2nd, the United Nations (UN) World Meteorological Organization predicted the imminent arrival of a moderate to possibly stronger El Niño phenomenon. This could potentially raise global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather events in the coming months.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) explained that the El Niño phenomenon, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically lasts for 9 to 12 months.
According to the WMO, the abnormal rise in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific is a key feature of the El Niño phenomenon. It is projected that from June to August, temperatures in most regions around the world will be above average, with the phenomenon likely to persist until November of this year.
The report also noted that the current intensity of the El Niño phenomenon remains uncertain due to significant discrepancies in predictions among different models. However, officials are warning countries to prepare in advance.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated, “We need to prepare for the potential occurrence of a strong El Niño event, which could exacerbate droughts, heavy rainfall, and increase the risk of heatwaves on land and in the oceans.”
Scientists currently believe that this weather pattern could disrupt regional climates, leading to increased global temperatures and higher rainfall in parts of southern South America, southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia; conversely, droughts are expected in parts of Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean region, Australia, Indonesia, and portions of South Asia.
Furthermore, warm ocean waters may enhance the development of hurricanes in the central East Pacific but hinder the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.
Amid this warning, Western Europe recently experienced an unusually hot May, with temperatures in the UK and Ireland breaking historical records. Last week, the WMO, in conjunction with the UK Met Office, warned that record-high global temperatures may occur within the next decade.
Saulo added that a high-intensity El Niño event occurred in 2023-2024, making 2024 the hottest year on record.
Currently, some national meteorological agencies predict that this El Niño event could be the strongest in a decade. The WMO, however, remains cautious. Nonetheless, they noted the abnormal warmth in the tropical Pacific subsurface, with temperatures exceeding 6°C above average, creating a vast reservoir of heat that could elevate global surface temperatures.
Saulo cautioned that risks associated with extreme heat may increase, including the potential for diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks to spread more widely, while food and water supplies may diminish, exacerbating the challenges faced by vulnerable regions.
Gareth Redmond-King from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) in the UK expressed concerns about the implications for food supply, as limited fertilizer availability due to conflicts has already strained the global food system.
He further warned that 2027 could witness even hotter conditions due to the El Niño event, which could have devastating impacts on farmers and affect the survival of many.
Additionally, the shortage of fertilizers caused by the Iran conflict combined with the El Niño event could further drive up prices of food and agricultural products.
Currently, London cocoa futures trade at £2,944 per metric ton (approximately $3,960), lower than the over £9,000 (approximately $12,100) in April 2024, yet the market remains uncertain.
Hein Schumacher, CEO of Barry Callebaut, one of the world’s largest cocoa processors, cautioned on June 2nd that major cocoa-producing regions in South America and West Africa could experience reduced yields due to the El Niño event, stating, “We are observing this matter very cautiously.”
Major cocoa-producing regions in West Africa include Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon, while South America includes Ecuador, Brazil, Peru, and Colombia. Additionally, Indonesia is the largest cocoa producer in Asia, all of which fall within the sphere of climate influence.
(Reference: Reuters)