The United States experienced a scorching summer this year, including the hottest July on record. As summer draws to a close, people are hoping for a cool and comfortable autumn season to arrive on schedule. However, meteorologists are predicting that due to the presence of a strong El Niño phenomenon this year, temperatures in most parts of the United States this fall are expected to be above average.
According to a report by USA TODAY and analysis by meteorologist Brian Lada from AccuWeather, the summer heat this year may linger longer than usual, partly due to the intensifying El Niño phenomenon.
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a forecast map showing that from September to November, most regions of the United States are expected to have temperatures above historical averages. The Ohio Valley is an exception, with equal chances of above or below average temperatures in that region.
Chief Meteorologist Scott Handel from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center wrote in an online forecast released on August 20th, “The temperature outlook for September, October, and November 2026 indicates that Alaska, much of the western and central United States, the Great Lakes region, the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, Florida, Southeast, and Gulf Coast are all likely to experience above-normal temperatures.”
Lada also stated in an online forecast that in many parts of the United States, September may feel like an extension of summer, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions where temperatures will be above average, accompanied by muggy nights.
For those who enjoy autumn weather, Handel provided a silver lining by mentioning that despite higher than average temperatures, cold snaps are still possible.
Regarding the hottest areas in the upcoming fall season, Handel mentioned, “Forecasts indicate that the likelihood of above-normal temperatures is highest in southeastern Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, northern High Plains, and adjacent areas of northwestern California (exceeding 50%).”
As for which region in the United States may experience cooler weather first, Handel mentioned in an email to USA TODAY, “As we progress further into autumn, the impact of the El Niño phenomenon is beginning to show more prominently. The likelihood of higher than normal temperatures in the southern United States is the lowest.”