During the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in Taiwan, which lasts from September 25th to 28th this year, people have a total of 4 days off to celebrate. According to the Central Weather Bureau, the weather is expected to be mostly cloudy to clear until the 27th, providing ample opportunity for moon viewing activities across the island during the Mid-Autumn Festival. Additionally, a tropical depression is forecasted to potentially develop into Typhoon Schlegel as early as the 24th.
As per the official website of the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, Tropical Depression 29 was positioned at 16.4 degrees north latitude and 137.9 degrees east longitude at 2 pm on the 23rd, moving at a speed of 22 kilometers per hour in a northwesterly direction.
Dr. Wu Derong, an associate professor at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University in Taiwan, mentioned in the “Sky Machine Classroom” column of the Meteorology Application Promotion Foundation today that the latest European model simulations indicate that there will be weak northeasterly winds and low moisture levels on both today and the 24th, resulting in clear and stable weather conditions across the island. However, there might be occasional brief showers in the mountainous areas of central and southern Taiwan as well as the Hualien-Taitung region.
Dr. Wu also stated that based on the latest model simulations, from the 23rd to the 27th, there will be an eastward shift in winds and a slight increase in moisture levels, leading to intervals of cloudiness in the western half of the island and sporadic brief showers in the mountainous areas of central and southern Taiwan during the afternoons. The eastern half of the island will experience periods of clouds and sun, with occasional light rainfall, and daytime temperatures will remain relatively warm while nights will be mildly cool. From the 28th to the 30th, there may be tropical system activity near Taiwan, but various international models show significant differences, requiring continued monitoring.
Furthermore, as indicated by the latest typhoon information from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, Typhoon Cuckoo is currently located in the southern waters of Japan, gradually moving northeastward along a curving path. Today, the storm’s radius will pass over the Kanto region of Japan, bringing threats of heavy rain and strong winds. Different country models project that from the 28th to the 30th, there will be tropical system activity near Taiwan, with the European model showing entry into the Bashi Channel on the evening of the 28th, while the American model indicates entry on the 29th, with significant variations in intensity and direction requiring further observation.
According to reports from the Central News Agency, forecaster Lai Xinguo from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau informed journalists that the tropical depression is expected to strengthen into this year’s 25th typhoon, Schlegel, as early as the 24th. It is predicted to head in a northwesterly direction before reaching Taiwan’s southeast waters on the 26th, gradually turning northward and then northeasternly towards the waters near the Ryukyu Islands. During the northward turn, it is likely to pass over the eastern waters of Taiwan. However, some models also suggest a more westerly trajectory, potentially bringing it closer to Taiwan.
Lai Xinguo pointed out that until the 27th, the weather will generally be mostly cloudy to clear. On the 24th, the northeasterly winds will carry a bit of moisture, with sporadic chances of light rain along the Keelung coast, northern Taipei, eastern areas, and the Hengchun Peninsula. Afternoon showers are expected mainly in the southern mountainous regions, and scattered brief showers may occur in other mountainous areas.
Regarding the Mid-Autumn Festival (on the 25th), since the typhoon is still at a distance from Taiwan, the weather across the island is expected to be mostly cloudy to clear, with some localized afternoon showers in mountainous regions and the possibility of increased cloud cover in the afternoon, dispersing gradually by evening to allow for moon-viewing activities in the western regions. The eastern areas, affected by the easterly winds, may experience more cloud cover, yet there is still a chance to admire the moon.
Lai Xinguo noted that the 26th and 27th should see the most stable weather conditions, with isolated brief showers in the mountainous regions during the afternoons. However, on the 28th and 29th, influenced by the outer cloud bands of the typhoon, there will be a northward breeze, increasing the chances of scattered brief showers in the areas north of Taoyuan and in Yilan, while other regions will experience mostly cloudy to clear skies, with isolated brief showers in the mountainous regions during the afternoons.
As the typhoon moves further away on the 30th, Lai Xinguo stated that the northeasterly seasonal winds will strengthen gradually, resulting in localized brief showers in areas north of Taoyuan, in the northeast regions, and Yilan, while the Hualien-Taitung region will also have sporadic brief showers. The rest of the areas will generally experience cloudy weather, with isolated brief showers in the mountainous regions during the afternoons.