**Analysis of the Changing Landscape of China’s “Double 11” Shopping Festival**
The “Double 11” shopping festival, once a nationwide shopping craze, is now evolving into just another regular promotional event in the year. Analysts reveal that when e-commerce platforms discount their products for two-thirds of the year, consumers begin to grow weary of discount tactics, shifting from impulse buying to more mindful consumer behavior tailored to their actual needs. A decline in housing prices and a weakening outlook for income have prompted the middle class to be more budget-conscious.
Data from a Chinese big data analysis company indicates that during the first round of major promotions for “Double 11” (from October 7 to October 31), the gross merchandise volume (GMV) for comprehensive e-commerce transactions increased by only 2.4% compared to the previous year, a stark contrast to the 14.2% growth during the same period last year.
Platforms like Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Douyin are now engaged in promotional activities nearly every month, spanning from the New Year festival and Valentine’s Day to the June 18 shopping festival and various brand days. The constant extension of these promotional events is cited as a key reason for the diminishing allure of “Double 11.”
Reports from local economic newspapers point out that consumers are confronted with discounts for two-thirds of the year under various guises, with e-commerce promotional events exceeding a hundred in total. As low prices are no longer exclusive to “Double 11,” consumers see little reason to wait until November 11 to make their purchases.
Consumer shopping habits are undergoing a dramatic shift. An analysis by a business financial source indicates that during the earlier years of “Double 11,” consumers were willing to stay up late to pool orders, stockpile necessities like toilet paper, and even buy unwanted items just to meet spending thresholds. At that time, many believed that their incomes would continue to rise, allowing them to justify spending a little more today for a better life tomorrow.
However, this consumption mentality is changing. Feedback from merchants reveals that in the past, white-collar professionals and young consumers eagerly studied discount rules, believing they were getting a good deal; nowadays, they are more focused on whether the products are truly necessary.
Analysts observe a growing consumer wariness towards pricing strategies. In the past, some retailers would inflate everyday prices before presenting discounts to create the illusion of affordability. Now, with the widespread availability of historical price checks and comparison tools, consumers are better equipped to identify pricing fluctuations, leading to a gradual decline in impulse purchases in favor of need-based buying.
This year, platforms like Tmall have eliminated cross-store discounts in favor of direct price reductions, while JD.com has canceled pre-sales in favor of immediate sales. Such changes reflect a recognition that old methods of encouraging spending through complex discount rules and extended pre-sale periods can no longer maintain their former effectiveness.
Consumers are not only shopping less; they are also reassessing the types of products they buy. Some analysts have noted that middle-class shoppers are now “shopping smart.” Previously popular items during “Double 11,” such as clothing and mobile phones, benefited from rising incomes and a booming real estate market, which instilled consumer confidence. Today, however, many are reducing discretionary spending on branded apparel and electronics, opting instead for affordable comforts like snacks, scented candles, and health products, which provide daily satisfaction.
Reports also indicate that live-streaming sellers have observed a shift in consumer preferences, with items priced around 90 yuan or even 40 to 50 yuan becoming more popular, compared to the 300 yuan gift boxes that used to dominate sales.
These changes in consumer behavior are closely tied to household wealth and expectations regarding income. With a sluggish real estate market and diminishing home asset values, combined with uncertainties in job stability and income growth, many middle-class families are beginning to cut back on non-essential expenditures. The once common practice of spending in anticipation of future income has become more cautious.
The cooling of “Double 11” is not only affecting consumers but is also putting pressure on businesses. Reports indicate that merchants must consider various costs such as traffic acquisition, advertising, discount costs, and return rates during a major promotional event. Even if sales figures rise, this does not necessarily translate into actual profit for the merchants. Some businesses share that, with everyday prices already pushed to their limits, further discounts during promotional periods can only be leveled by initially raising the marked price before discounting.
On the other hand, e-commerce platforms are gradually moving away from emphasizing total transaction value. Since 2022, Tmall and JD.com have stopped announcing their final GMV for “Double 11.” Subsequently, their promotional focus has shifted towards metrics such as category growth, user numbers, and the integration of artificial intelligence.
In summary, the transformation of “Double 11” reflects broader economic trends and shifting consumer psychology in China. As shoppers become increasingly discerning and budget-conscious, e-commerce platforms and businesses must adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this evolving marketplace.