In recent months, the frequent incursions of drones into NATO territory have prompted the alliance’s top commander to issue a warning to Russia. The “hybrid warfare” model being employed by Russia is posing a serious threat to European Union countries.
NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, issued a warning to Russia on Monday, stating that if Moscow is “foolish” enough to launch an attack on NATO territory, its forces will destroy everything involved in the attack.
NATO member countries are facing a more challenging threat with the increasing frequency of drone intrusions into their airspace. These intrusive activities often fall into a gray area, making it difficult to be penalized and are often linked to Russia.
According to reports from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), these activities exhibit deliberate efforts to instill fear and uncertainty, such as suspected Russian drones repeatedly entering the airspace of NATO’s eastern flank countries like Romania and Poland, forcing NATO fighter jets to scramble multiple times to prevent potential attacks.
Recently, unidentified drones have increasingly appeared at sensitive locations in NATO countries, including military bases, nuclear power plants, and airports, leading to disruptions even in countries like Germany, Belgium, and France.
German authorities have recorded over 1,000 suspicious drone-related incidents since January 2025. The Federal Criminal Police Office in Germany stated that on average, about 1.5 incidents occur daily over the airspace of “critical infrastructure, military facilities, and defense companies.”
CBC’s report revealed that a report from the German Air Traffic Control Agency showed a total of 261 drone-related interference incidents in German airports or airspace from January to August this year, an 80% increase compared to the same period last year.
Defense experts suggest that overall, the patterns exhibited by these drones strongly indicate they are part of Russia’s hybrid military campaign.
Ulrike Franke, a renowned drone expert in Europe, stated, “I can confidently say that this is related to Russia’s aggression towards Europe, its war against Ukraine, and Russia’s perception of being at war with the West.”
Ongoing mysterious drone-related incidents in European skies have given rise to the term “hybrid warfare.” This type of warfare aims to weaken adversaries through unconventional means without escalating into open war.
Norway has experienced over 300 drone incidents so far this year, leading to six disruptions in airport operations. In the UK, incidents involving drones near military bases have doubled in the past year. In Belgium, 150 drone incidents have been reported over sensitive locations’ airspace.
On September 12, a suspected drone incident caused flight disruptions at Brussels airport. A week later, 19 flights at Luxembourg airport were diverted due to drone sightings, affecting nearly 2,000 passengers. Four days later, Berlin’s major airport was closed due to a drone spotted over its northern runway.
Member of the European Parliament and the Security and Defense Committee, former Belgian Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo, stated in an interview, “This is hybrid warfare.”
“It’s not just drone warfare, it’s also cyber-attacks. All of this combined is a real war, but apart from the drones, we can’t see anyone,” he added.
A report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) revealed that in the previous 18 months leading up to February this year, 144 suspicious drones were spotted flying over sensitive locations in a dozen NATO countries.
The report also suggested that these drones may have been launched from Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
Russia has consistently denied all these accusations.
The authors of the IISS report mentioned that the overall pattern of these drone incidents cannot be fully explained by human error, amateur drone mismanagement, or other reasons, and stated that Russia’s operational design aims to create a blurred environment, making it challenging to determine real invasions.
Franke pointed out that this pattern showcases Russia’s involvement, with one of its aims being to sow uncertainty.
“Russia benefits from our anxiety,” Franke remarked. “The sophistication of this kind of hybrid warfare is that it has a significant impact and it’s hard to pinpoint the source of the attacks, leading to misreporting. It’s difficult for open, democratic societies to handle.”