On November 4, The Old Farmer’s Almanac released its forecast for the upcoming holiday season, highlighting the potential for a white Christmas in various regions including the Northeast, mountainous areas, and Alaska. Additionally, several other regions across the United States may also experience similar festive conditions.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a white Christmas is defined as having at least one inch (approximately 2.5 centimeters) of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, irrespective of whether it snows on that day itself.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac provides predictions based on regions it has delineated. Within the contiguous United States and including Alaska and Hawaii, the forecast predicts that areas such as the Northeast, mountainous regions, and Alaska are likely to enjoy a white Christmas. Other regions, including the southern Appalachian Mountains, the lower Great Lakes area, the Ohio River Valley, the High Plains, and the Pacific Northwest, also have a chance for snow.
Conversely, areas such as the Atlantic Corridor, the Southeast, Florida, the Deep South, the northern Midwest, the heartland, Texas and Oklahoma, the southwestern desert, the Pacific Southwest, and Hawaii are expected to have no chance of a white Christmas. Similarly, the northern section of the Appalachian Mountains has also been excluded from the snowy predictions.
Catherine Boeckmann, an executive editor at the Almanac, noted that the outlook for this winter displays considerable variation across the United States, with some neighboring regions experiencing starkly different conditions. For instance, while a white Christmas is predicted for the Northeast, the adjacent Atlantic Corridor is expected to be devoid of snow.
The Almanac’s winter forecast for 2026-2027 indicates that much of the United States will experience temperatures near or above normal levels this winter. However, it predicts that areas stretching from south-central New England, through the Appalachian Mountains, to the Ohio River Valley will see temperatures below the seasonal average, while Hawaii may also experience cooler weather than in previous years.
Regarding snowfall, the publication anticipates that regions in central New England, the Appalachian Mountains, mountainous areas, the Pacific Northwest, and Alaska will see above-average snowfall compared to historical norms.
It’s important to note that while the term “above normal” is used, this is relative; temperatures may not be as cold as in previous years, but they still represent winter weather.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been offering weather forecasts since 1792, claiming a blend of solar science, climatology, and meteorology in its long-term predictions, while also analyzing historical weather patterns and current solar activities. However, the specific formulas utilized for these forecasts remain undisclosed. Notably, the Almanac claims an accuracy rate of approximately 80%. This percentage refers to the accuracy in predicting seasonal temperatures and precipitation trends, rather than daily weather forecasts.
On October 15, NOAA released its own winter outlook for December 2026 through February 2027, suggesting that a “very strong” El Niño phenomenon could influence weather patterns this winter. It expects that temperatures in the northern U.S. may be above normal, while the Southeast (including Florida) will hover around average levels. In Hawaii and much of the Southwest, temperatures show no significant directional tendency.
In terms of precipitation, NOAA forecasts that the southern regions, extending from the Southwest to the Southeast, as well as the East Coast, will likely experience wetter conditions than usual. In contrast, the northern mountainous regions, parts of the Great Lakes area, and much of Alaska may face drier weather.
Furthermore, NOAA emphasized that seasonal forecasts do not predict snowfall accumulation, as snowfall typically cannot be projected more than a week in advance. Their three-month outlook is updated monthly, with the next update scheduled for November 19.
Based on historical probability charts derived from 1991-2020 climate data, the likelihood of snow accumulation of at least one inch on Christmas is highest in the northern states and mountainous regions.