Recently, the Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) held its annual military banquet on August 1st, without any members of the Central Military Commission (CMC) present, leading to speculation of a downgrading in status. Analysts believe that this situation is a result of the significant purges within the military initiated by Xi Jinping. Despite Xi Jinping’s ongoing efforts to purge military leaders, he has not fully consolidated control over the military.
The Ministry of National Defense of the Chinese Communist Party held the military banquet at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on July 31. State media reported that Defense Minister Dong Jun attended and delivered a speech.
According to reports, “leaders of various departments of the CMC and relevant units stationed in Beijing” were present, but Deputy CMC Chairman Zhang Shengmin was not mentioned.
In previous years, senior military leaders attended the banquet, including CMC members Li Shangfu, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, and Zhang Shengmin in 2023; Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, and Zhang Shengmin in 2024; Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin in 2025. However, in 2026, only Defense Minister Dong Jun attended and delivered a speech.
After former Defense Minister Li Shangfu fell from grace, Dong Jun assumed office in December 2023, but he has not been promoted to State Councilor and CMC member as customary.
Chinese affairs expert Li Linyi stated that traditionally, only officials above the vice-ministerial level are listed as attendees at meetings. For the military, it means only officials above the level of CMC member attend such events. In the past, CMC members in office attended the military banquet, and state media would list them. However, with the decreasing number of CMC members in the 20th Central Committee, the leadership now only includes one CMC Vice Chairman, Zhang Shengmin, making the situation awkward.
Li Linyi mentioned that as Zhang Shengmin is already a CMC Vice Chairman and the only one actively serving, it would be inappropriate for him to attend events previously attended by CMC members. However, since Dong Jun is not even a CMC member, the absence of CMC members at the banquet implies a de facto downgrade. This situation is primarily a result of Xi Jinping’s extensive purges within the CMC.
Su Ziyun, Director of the Institute for Defense Strategy and Resources at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense Security Studies, noted that the consequences of personnel purges are evident. Since last year’s military banquet, it has been observed that tables were less occupied. This year’s situation was even more pronounced, with state media emphasizing only the CMC Chairman’s dictatorship.
Senior political analyst Sun Guoxiang from Taiwan mentioned that Dong Jun can still be politically useful to Xi, but he no longer holds the political status of a CMC member or State Councilor as previous Defense Ministers did. After the fall from grace of Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, the new Defense Minister’s political security has significantly declined.
Beijing analyst Yang Shan (pseudonym) expressed that Dong Jun has managed to stay in his position as Defense Minister because Xi Jinping wants to maintain the outward stability of the military. Switching to another person may not necessarily be better, as Dong Jun’s professional ability is slightly stronger. However, his ability to stay does not necessarily mean Xi Jinping trusts him.
During his speech at the banquet, Dong Jun emphasized the so-called “Xi Jinping Thought on Strengthening the Military,” implementing the chairman’s responsibility system within the CMC, and rallying the military to “obey the Party’s commands and follow the Party’s lead.”
In response to this, independent political commentator Cai Shenkun on X platform analyzed that Dong Jun’s continued assertive statements reflect a deep political reality: after 14 years in power, Xi Jinping still has not fully controlled this military force, and the potential for political unrest within the military remains his biggest long-term threat during his tenure.
Former Inner Mongolia official Du Wen also analyzed on X platform that Xi Jinping has failed to address the military in his 14 years in power because he has been trying to resolve institutional issues through personal authoritarianism, replacing professional competence with political loyalty and covering up organizational dysfunction with repeated purges. While he controls military power, he has not built trust; he has subdued generals but failed to unify military morale.
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