Russia continues to attack Ukrainian ports, transportation infrastructure, and targets near the border. In order to ensure the safety of cargo shipments, Ukraine is in discussions with Poland and Slovakia to consider relocating customs inspections of trucks carrying exported grains from the Ukrainian border to within the territories of these two European Union member states to reduce the risk of Russian drone attacks.
According to a report by Reuters on October 23, Heorhii Tykhyi, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated in an interview with the Financial Times that Russia is attempting to attack the Ukrainian border. Ukraine’s move is a response to the disruption faced in logistics, transportation, and cross-border freight, hoping to quickly reach an agreement with Poland. The Financial Times also cited the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs as mentioning that Ukraine has established a joint border control point with Moldova and aims to expand this practice to other neighboring countries including Poland.
Ukraine and Moldova signed a joint border control agreement on October 6, 2017. According to data from the Ukrainian government, the two countries signed numerous port joint control protocols on December 21, 2023, aiming to simplify customs procedures for personnel and goods and reduce clearance times.
The attacks by the Russian military and related security measures continue to impact cross-border transportation. The Kyiv Post reported on October 21 that the Volyn Customs Department stated that during the period from October 10 to 19, local road border crossings were interrupted 61 times due to air raid warnings, resulting in nearly 53 hours of downtime. On the evening of October 20, nearly 1,000 trucks were queued at the Poland-Dorohusk border crossing waiting to enter Ukraine.
High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, stated on October 20 at the European Parliament that Russia is attacking the border crossings between Ukraine and Moldova, Romania, and Poland, putting alternative transportation routes at risk.
The Black Sea serves as a crucial channel for Ukraine’s agricultural product exports. According to a report by Reuters on September 23, the Russian military attacks have disrupted operations at Ukrainian Black Sea ports, leading to a significant portion of cargo being redirected through Danube River ports.
In early October, Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture Taras Vysotskyi stated that Ukraine exported around 2.4 million tons of agricultural products in September, only equivalent to 46% of its potential export capacity. He noted that with the inability to fully utilize Black Sea deep-water ports, existing alternative routes can only support approximately 45% to 50% of the potential export volume.
Kallas also mentioned on October 20 that since mid-July, Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s export infrastructure and Black Sea shipping, causing Ukraine to lose around 60 million euros in export revenue daily. Meanwhile, Ukraine is projected to face a financing gap of approximately 70 billion euros in 2027, further exacerbating its economic pressures due to export disruptions.
To maintain Ukraine’s foreign trade, the European Union is promoting several alternative transport routes. Following the comprehensive escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the EU established the “EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes” to assist Ukraine in continuing to export goods during Black Sea shipping disruptions and import essential supplies.
The European Commission is collaborating with relevant countries and the transportation industry to enhance border clearance procedures, improve transportation network capabilities, and seek additional equipment such as railway freight cars to alleviate logistical bottlenecks and enhance Ukraine’s freight capacity.
The Danube River shipping is taking on more export responsibilities. Data released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture indicates that food exports from Ukraine through Danube River ports increased from approximately 716,000 tons in August to 1.145 million tons in September. However, limited navigational capacity, shortage of navigators, and factors like air raid warnings and low water levels still restrict the efficiency of Danube River shipping.
Ukraine is also exploring the use of Baltic Sea ports for grain exports. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture estimates that the grain export capacity of relevant ports in the region could reach 20 million tons, but the cost per ton through this route could increase by approximately $100, and the economic feasibility is still under evaluation.