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Chinese people have heard a saying since childhood: the Three Gorges Project is the hundred-year dream of the Chinese nation. This project, the largest water conservancy project in the world so far, is promoted as a symbol of China’s comprehensive national strength.
However, more than twenty years have passed since its completion, and Chinese society is still debating a question: Has the Three Gorges Project really paid off?
In 2013, the official media of the Chinese Communist Party loudly announced: the Three Gorges Project has recouped all investments.
In 2024, authoritative analysis stated: it would take over ten more years for the project to truly pay off.
By 2026, scholars pointed out: if hidden costs were taken into account, the Three Gorges Project might never achieve financial balance.
Why are there three completely different answers? Today, through the relevant research of hydraulic expert Wang Weiluo and other public data, we will explore the mysterious accounts behind the Three Gorges Project.
On April 3, 1992, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, the National People’s Congress officially voted on the Three Gorges Project plan. Ultimately, the plan received 1,767 votes in favor, 177 votes against, 664 abstentions, and 25 failures to vote. This was a rare resolution in the National People’s Congress since the establishment of the CCP, with a large number of opposing and abstaining votes.
However, the project was still initiated. From that day onwards, the Three Gorges Project was given high political significance. In official propaganda, this project was described as an almost flawless mega-project: capable of flood control, power generation, improving navigation, and bringing huge economic benefits. Some even said it was a goose that laid golden eggs.
After the unprecedented flood in the Yangtze River basin in 1998, many believed that once the Three Gorges Dam was completed, it would fundamentally solve the Yangtze River flood problems, bringing peace of mind to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
But is reality really like that?
In 2020, the largest flood since the completion of the Three Gorges unleashed five flood peaks. Wuhan and surrounding areas still suffered severe floods, and Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake also incurred heavy losses. In upstream areas, Chongqing and the Three Gorges reservoir area experienced extensive flooding.
Many noticed a strange phenomenon in 2020: the highest flood level at the Cuntan Station in Chongqing exceeded the 1981 record, yet the flood peak flow in 2020 was not as high as in 1981.
Despite smaller floods, higher water levels imply that the Three Gorges Dam has altered the water flow, redistributing rather than reducing flood risks. In some areas, the risk of flooding is even higher than before.
Of course, the official propaganda emphasizes the economic benefits brought by power generation as the greatest advantage of the Three Gorges Project. In 2003, the first units of the Three Gorges began generating electricity, gradually entering full operation.
On December 20, 2013, the official media China News Network reported: as of November 30, 2013, the Three Gorges Power Station had generated 704.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, with revenue reaching 183.1 billion RMB. The dynamic investment in the Three Gorges Project was about 180 billion RMB, meaning that this century project had recouped all investment costs.
The news was widely circulated by major media outlets, and the public was jubilant. Many thought that the Three Gorges Project had entered a pure profit-making phase, continuously creating wealth.
However, upon closer examination, the official media was subtly setting the tone while omitting a common sense notion.
For instance, if you borrow 1 million RMB from a bank to buy a house, and after ten years you have repaid the principal, does it mean the mortgage is paid off? Clearly not, you still have to pay interest, and often, the interest may even exceed the principal. This is a financial reality that many Chinese families today have deeply experienced.
Strangely, with the Three Gorges Project, the government allowed this fundamental financial concept to disappear.
In fact, before 2013, senior officials from the Three Gorges Group had never stated that exceeding income over the principal constituted payback.
In 2006, Li Yong’an, the then General Manager of Three Gorges Development Corporation, openly stated that the total investment in the Three Gorges Project was about 180 billion RMB, but it would only truly recoup the investment when the accumulated electricity generation reached 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to around 250 billion RMB in revenue, which would be around 2015 to 2017.
By 2010, Cao Guangjing, Chairman of the Three Gorges Group, also stated that around 2015 to 2018, the Three Gorges could recover all investments.
So, by the period anticipated by the Three Gorges management from 2015 to 2018, could the project really pay off?
On June 20, 2024, an article by “InsiTech” suggested that considering all costs, including resettlement of migrants, maintenance along the reservoir, etc., the Three Gorges Project would need at least another decade or more to achieve true financial balance.
The background of “InsiTech” is unique: it is controlled by the top 100 investment groups such as the Three Gorges Group, Gezhouba Group, State Power Investment Corporation, China Harbor Engineering Company, etc., with clients including the five major power generation groups, water conservancy and water administration authorities, and the top 100 investment groups.
The article stated that by the end of 2021, the Three Gorges Hydropower Station had generated over 1.3 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity, which at 0.25 RMB per kilowatt-hour equates to creating an economic benefit of 325 billion RMB.
Based on this data, let’s do some calculations. The Three Gorges Project generates 90 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, yielding a benefit of 22.5 billion RMB. Therefore, by the end of 2021 with 325 billion RMB, plus 2022 and 2023’s incomes of 45 billion RMB, by the end of 2023, the Three Gorges should have generated an economic benefit of 370 billion RMB. If we look ahead ten more years, that is 370 billion RMB + 225 billion RMB, totaling 595 billion RMB.
According to the data provided by this professional company, the various costs of the Three Gorges Project amount to about 600 billion RMB.
But is this the end of it?
When the Three Gorges Project initially started, the official disclosed investment was approximately 90 billion RMB, then increased to 180 billion RMB, and later to over 200 billion RMB.
Thus, the cost of the Three Gorges Project has more than doubled the initially announced figures.
And this is only the visible part because after the Three Gorges Project was operational, new issues continued arising, each requiring additional investment.
For instance, geohazard maintenance. After the Three Gorges Project impoundment, a massive reservoir stretching over 600 kilometers was formed, leading to changes in the surrounding geological environment as water levels rose. Over the years, the Three Gorges reservoir area frequently experienced landslides, bank collapses, and other geohazards, requiring substantial funds for slope stabilization, bank protection, and large-scale mitigation. How much investment is needed in this area?
There is also water quality purification. The construction of the Three Gorges Project reduced the average flow velocity of the mainstream Yangtze River by 90%, weakening its self-purification capacity and leading to deteriorated water quality.
The most ardent supporter of the Three Gorges Project at Tsinghua University, Professor Zhang Guangdou, proposed allocating 300 billion RMB from the central government for pollution control in the reservoir area.
Moreover, the fish resources in the Yangtze River have also been impacted, with migratory fish such as the Chinese sturgeon facing habitat changes, and the entire Yangtze River ecosystem under sustained pressure.
In recent years, the Chinese Communist Party has invested enormous sums to manage the Yangtze River. In February 2026, a research team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences published an article in the American journal “Science” (“A seventy-year ban on fishing has curbed the decline of biodiversity in the Yangtze River”). The article indicated that over the past decade, to protect biodiversity in the Yangtze River basin, investment exceeded 300 billion USD, equivalent to over 2 trillion RMB.
Despite such huge investments, biodiversity in the Yangtze River is still declining.
Many may wonder: if there was no Three Gorges Project, would the related management costs be so significant?
If tens of times the cost of the project need to be spent on dealing with geohazards, water pollution, and the deterioration of the Yangtze River ecology, then is this project an asset or a liability?
Renowned Chinese hydraulic expert, Mr. Wang Weiluo, residing in Germany, believes that if a portion of these hidden investments is factored in, the Three Gorges Project can never achieve financial balance.
In fact, what we are discussing today is not just the Three Gorges Project but a broader issue: why in China, the costs of many mega-projects can never be accurately calculated?
Because under the CCP system, political objectives often override economic principles. The success of a project is determined primarily by propaganda needs, and financial results come secondary.
When encouragement is needed, the Three Gorges project has already paid off. When further investment is required, the project still needs construction. When problems arise, costs are recalculated, and figures redefined.
Has the Three Gorges Project paid off? The answer is already apparent. The next question is: who should be held accountable for this cost?
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