The upcoming 5th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is set to convene next week. According to the latest analysis report by the Asia Society, it is anticipated that out of the 376 central committee members and alternate members generated during the 20th Party Congress in October 2022, only around 291 individuals are expected to attend the upcoming session, resulting in an attendance rate of approximately 77.4%, possibly marking a new record low.
The Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Analysis Center published a report on its official website on October 19th, stating that the official report of the 5th Plenum will disclose the attendance numbers, and the official television broadcast will showcase who is present. Unexplained absences might trigger speculation from the outside world, although these cannot definitively prove that something untoward has occurred.
In October 2022, the 20th Central Committee initially consisted of 205 central committee members and 171 alternate members, totaling 376 individuals. During last year’s 4th Plenum, 168 central committee members and 147 alternate members were present, resulting in an attendance rate of 83.8%. The Asia Society report noted, “This is the lowest attendance rate at any Plenum since the era of Mao Zedong. This year is likely to set a new record in this regard.”
The report predicts that this year’s attendance will comprise approximately 161 central committee members and 130 alternate members, totaling 291 individuals, with an expected attendance rate of 77.4%.
The basis for estimating the attendance numbers includes 20 central committee members and 8 alternate members being expelled, 15 central committee members and 6 alternate members under investigation, 3 central committee members and 5 alternate members “missing,” as well as 18 military committee members and 8 military alternate members also being “missing.” Furthermore, former Foreign Minister Qin Gang was removed from his position as a central committee member, and former Director General of the General Administration of Customs Yu Jianhua passed away in 2024.
The report stated, “If further investigations or disappearances occur, the attendance rate could further decline.”
Last year’s 4th Plenum confirmed the expulsion of 14 central committee members and alternate committee members, with 10 being central committee members and 4 being alternate committee members. Additionally, one member passed away. The 4th Plenum appointed 11 alternate members to fill the vacancies in the central committee.
The report highlighted that since the 4th Plenum last year, there have been 8 vacant central committee seats. If the 15 central committee members under investigation are all expelled before or during the session, potentially up to 23 alternate members could be promoted, setting a new post-Mao era record for a single Plenum.
The report emphasized the need to watch out for any eligible alternate members being “skipped over,” as this could foreshadow political trouble.
Independent commentator Du Zheng’s article “Tigers Gathering at Beijing’s 5th Plenum” published in Taiwanese media “UpMedia” on October 21st provided what he claims to be the most comprehensive list of unresolved 20th Central Committee members available online.
Apart from Qin Gang’s removal as a central committee member and the passing of former Director General of the General Administration of Customs Yu Jianhua in 2024, the 3rd Plenum also confirmed the Party’s disciplinary actions against former Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu, former Commander of the Rocket Force Li Yuchao, and former Chief of Staff of the Rocket Force Sun Jinming, expelling them from the Party. Li Shangfu and Li Yuchao were central committee members, while Sun Jinming was an alternate member of the 20th Central Committee.
The 2025 4th Plenum of the CCP’s 20th Central Committee formally expelled 14 members, including 10 central committee members and 4 alternate members.
According to Du Zheng’s tally, a total of 32 central committee members have fallen from grace since the 4th Plenum, with some having already been expelled from the Party and needing confirmation at the 5th Plenum; others might be under investigation and awaiting expulsion after the 5th Plenum. These individuals will be unable to attend the session.
The article noted that besides the named central committee members officially ousted, at least 25 individuals are in a state of “missing.” However, it is uncertain whether all of the “missing” members will be publicly expelled from the Party, leaving their fate ambiguous.
Du Zheng stated that the Communist Party is rife with corruption, and political loyalty is enforced through brutal internal struggles, indicating that the CCP must rely on ruthless infighting to maintain its rule. Xi Jinping’s emphasis on a party “self-revolution” is essentially a form of self-destruction. Xi Jinping will not rest until the party faces its demise.
Renowned political commentator based in the United States, Chen Pokong, previously told Epoch Times that Xi Jinping had consolidated power and taken full control during the 20th Party Congress. However, the resulting composition of the Central Committee, Central Military Commission, and the Politburo has encountered major issues, reflecting his governance failures and his inability to discern and appoint appropriate individuals. In order to safeguard his power and defend himself, Xi Jinping has wielded the anti-corruption campaign against his own allies, painting himself as impartial and resolute, attempting to mask his political blunders.
In 2025, the 4th Plenum of the 20th Central Committee expelled 14 members, including 10 central committee members and 4 alternate members, from their position.
In summary, the upcoming 5th Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party is likely to be marked by low attendance rates, expulsions, and an atmosphere of political uncertainty, showcasing the challenges and power struggles inherent within the party’s leadership.