According to official data from the Chinese Communist Party, the number of newly licensed drivers nationwide in 2025 was 20.51 million, a sharp decrease of 43% compared to 36.13 million in 2015. Industry experts estimate that by 2030, the total number of driving schools in the country will decrease by 25% to 35%. Recently, “Who Killed the Driving Schools” has become a trending topic on Weibo.
Reported by “Yicai”, scenes of students lining up to practice driving under the scorching sun at driving schools are no longer seen. Instead, training cars sit idle, and instructors switch to driving for ride-hailing services.
According to statistics from the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, the number of newly licensed drivers nationwide was 36.13 million in 2015, 33.14 million in 2016, and decreased to 29.43 million in 2019. The decline has accelerated in the past three years, with 24.29 million people in 2023, 22.26 million in 2024, and only 20.51 million in 2025, a decrease of over 40% in a decade.
Ten years ago, Mr. Liu in Shiyan, Hubei, was a taxi driver. Seeing the booming driving school market, he obtained an instructor’s license and switched careers. At its peak, he trained over 300 students a year. However, since 2020, the number of students has plummeted. In 2024, he trained fewer than 50 students for the whole year, prompting him to switch back to being a ride-hailing driver in 2025.
Reportedly, driving instructors across the country are experiencing a wave of large-scale career transitions. Some have turned to ride-hailing, some deliver food, while others have simply returned to their hometowns. The number of practitioners in the driving school industry has decreased from nearly one million during its peak to less than 600,000 currently.
Data shows that out of over 21,000 driving training institutions nationwide, over 80% of driving schools are operating at a loss, with an average capacity utilization rate of only 28.6%. According to previous reports, summer vacation should have been the peak season for learning to drive, but this year in Jinan, only 4 out of 15 training cars at one driving school were in use, while the rest remained idle.
The report suggests that the continuous decline in the number of learners is closely related to the declining population. In the past, people in their thirties to fifties made up a significant proportion of driving learners, but over the years, most of them have already obtained their driver’s licenses. Nowadays, driving schools mainly target young people who have just turned 18 or entered the workforce, but the number of potential students has significantly decreased due to the smaller population of the post-2000 generation compared to those born between the 1960s and 1990s, each exceeding 200 million.
Moreover, the consumption habits of young people are changing, with an increasing number of post-2000s no longer in a rush to get a driver’s license. Mr. Li from Panyu, Guangzhou, admitted that a few years ago, he bought an SUV but sold it after two years. Now, it is more convenient for him to take the subway or ride-hailing services, which incur lower expenses than owning and maintaining a car.
The Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Market Information Joint Council predicts that the period from 2026 to 2027 will be the peak of elimination, and after 2030, supply and demand will tend to balance out, with the industry’s total capacity expected to decrease by 25% to 35%.