On August 15, British media published a lengthy article quoting former diplomats as saying that if the Chinese Communist Party fully invades the “unsinkable fortress” of Taiwan, it will be a “life-and-death gamble” and could be the biggest mistake made by Beijing authorities.
According to reports by the Central News Agency, Charles Parton, a former British diplomat with over 20 years of experience in China-Taiwan affairs, said in an interview with The Sun, “If (Chinese leader) Xi Jinping fails, then he is likely to be engulfed by a backlash from the mainland.”
Parton stated that the economy could collapse, and people would feel angry for losing their children in the war. This massive economic turmoil would lead to unemployment, and Xi Jinping’s reputation would be completely ruined. “So, this will be a huge risk, if he doesn’t have almost a hundred percent certainty of victory in Taiwan, I would be quite surprised.”
Parton, a scholar at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) for Defence and Security Studies, believes that the People’s Liberation Army would face a daunting task in successfully invading Taiwan.
The British tabloid The Sun stated that in order to launch a high-risk amphibious attack, Chinese forces would have to sail through roughly 100 miles of rough seas to reach the heavily defended island of Taiwan.
Parton mentioned, “There are only about 13 beaches for landing, of course you would send in airborne troops, but they are likely to be shot down, especially with the advancement of drone technology.” He pointed out, “So, if Taiwan is well-prepared, the invasion will be extremely difficult and likely not succeed.”
Another important reason why Xi Jinping’s attempt to unify Taiwan is likely to fail is because the invasion operation is too overt to conceal. Parton said that launching aggression would require a mobilization of a large number of troops, resources, and aerial support, which would be a “very clear warning.”
He explained, “This will give the United States and other countries time to strengthen their actions, making it more difficult for China, hence I am quite skeptical that aggression will actually be launched.”
If China attempts to block Taiwan’s surroundings, it will also face significant difficulties because this would effectively disrupt most of the shipping in the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan Strait accounts for a large part of Asian trade, with ships from around the world passing through daily. If the Beijing authorities block these trade routes, it would severely impede the flow of funds into the Asia region, including China. Parton said, “Then, China would face mass unemployment.”
He also mentioned that Beijing still needs to establish sufficient strength in resources, supplies, and technology to counterbalance the West. Parton therefore emphasized that until all these conditions are met, it can be reasonably concluded that the Chinese Communist Party’s plan to take Taiwan by force will be temporarily put on hold.