On the eve of the 20th Fifth Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), there are reports circulating overseas that Xia Linmao, a former close associate of CCP Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi and the current Deputy Mayor of Beijing, is under investigation. However, the information has not been confirmed at this time. Experts point out that during crucial power struggle points within the CCP, various types of rumors and leaks are common, and it cannot be ruled out that some individuals may be attempting to undermine Cai Qi. Cai Qi is a close ally of Xi Jinping, but Xi himself is rumored to be facing a crisis.
On October 20, independent commentator Cai Shenkun posted a prominent tweet on X platform stating that there were online rumors about Xia Linmao being promoted to Mayor of Beijing. However, Cai Shenkun claimed to have insider information that Xia Linmao was taken away by the Discipline Inspection Commission on the 19th, and unlike previous incidents, this time it was an official removal with a house search.
Born in May 1970 in Jiangsu Jianhu, Xia Linmao served under Cai Qi’s leadership in Beijing, holding positions such as Secretary of Miyun District Committee, Secretary of Dongcheng District Committee, and Member of the Standing Committee of the Beijing Municipal Committee, concurrently serving as Secretary of the Education Work Committee. He is a candidate member of the 20th Central Committee.
Despite unverified reports about Xia Linmao, his profile remains on the official website of the Beijing Municipal Government. Commenting on this, veteran political analyst Chen Pokong believes that the release of such information ahead of the Fifth Plenary Session is likely part of internal power struggles, and while the authenticity is uncertain, it appears to have a negative impact on Cai Qi.
Chen Pokong analyzed that Xi Jinping did not bring Cai Qi on his visit to Inner Mongolia on October 16. Normally, Cai Qi accompanies Xi on his trips unless there are special circumstances preventing him from doing so. This absence has raised speculation in political circles and is seen as detrimental to Cai Qi.
Former Chairman of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Wei Xiaodong, was removed from office on June 6, 2026. Wei, originally from Zhangzhou, Fujian, was also a former associate of Cai Qi in Beijing, but was also linked to former Central Organization Minister Chen Xi, who hails from Fujian as well.
Chen Pokong mentioned that while Wei Xiaodong’s downfall may have more to do with Chen Xi, being unable to protect Wei still reflects poorly on Cai Qi. During Cai Qi’s tenure as Beijing Municipal Committee Secretary, he initiated the expulsion of “low-end population,” and Xia Linmao was a key figure in implementing his policies. If Xia Linmao’s issues are confirmed, it would be another heavy blow to Cai Qi.
The upcoming 20th Fifth Plenary Session of the CCP, scheduled to take place before the end of October, is said to focus on the theme of “comprehensively strengthening party discipline,” signaling a potential increase in anti-corruption measures.
Chen Pokong stated that by setting the theme of the Fifth Plenary Session as “comprehensively strengthening party discipline,” Xi Jinping may receive substantial feedback indicating major corruption issues related to Cai Qi. The need to strengthen party discipline may necessitate dealing with Cai Qi first. If Cai Qi cannot be handled directly due to his position as a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, then those around him may face consequences. This could lead to numerous reports being submitted, putting Xi Jinping in a difficult position.
Chen Pokong believes that Cai Qi is likely to retire at the 21st Party Congress next year, as he was born in 1955 and will have exceeded the retirement age by then. It is speculated that during the 21st Party Congress next year, Xi Jinping may exclude Cai Qi, along with Wang Huning and Zhao Leji, the three “post-1950s” officials, from the leadership. Currently, the prevailing sentiments seem unfavorable towards Cai Qi.
Chinese affairs expert Wang He previously told Dajiyuan that Xi Jinping’s sudden removal of two high-ranking military commission members, Zhang Yuxia and Liu Zhenli, has caused significant political shockwaves, intensifying his sense of insecurity. Xi relies on two key figures, Cai Qi, the Head of the General Office of the CCP Central Committee overseeing the Central Security Bureau, and Wang Xiaohong, the Minister of Public Security, to maintain power. If any changes were to occur to these two figures, Xi’s authority could be seriously undermined.
In a previous report, Chinese affairs expert Li Linyi expressed the view that it is unlikely for Cai Qi to relinquish his position as the head of the Central Organization Department and for Wang Xiaohong to step down as Minister of Public Security. However, both individuals will be over 70 years old by the time of the 21st Party Congress, with rumors suggesting Wang Xiaohong may be facing health issues. Xi relies on these two figures to maintain power, but the situation could change at any moment.
Observers believe that the Fifth Plenary Session will showcase the largest political purge within the CCP since the end of the Cultural Revolution. The number of Central Committee members confirmed to be expelled from the party is expected to surpass historical records within the CCP.
Chen Pokong stated that single-party rule is inherently problematic, and authoritarianism aggravates the situation further. Mao Zedong’s excessive concentration of power and the initiation of the Cultural Revolution almost led to the destruction of the party and the nation. As a result, surviving leaders such as Deng Xiaoping opted for collective leadership and establishment of term limits for leaders. However, Xi Jinping’s reluctance to relinquish power has undermined the system of collective leadership and term limits, worsening the political landscape within the CCP.
“In the current situation, the crisis within the CCP is essentially Xi Jinping’s crisis. It appears that the party is falling apart because reforms are not being implemented through the rule of law, press freedom, or judicial independence, but rather through selective persecution and anti-corruption measures. This has not garnered genuine support,” he remarked.
Chen Pokong highlighted recent signs of Xi Jinping’s instability. Xi’s brief visit to Inner Mongolia, where he stayed for a day and returned immediately without visiting the Zhurihe military base, which was previously under Zhang Yuxia’s influence, indicates a cautious approach. Adding to this, rumors circulating about Xi’s succession plans and potential health problems have created uncertainty among the public.
He warned, “While it may seem like Xi holds absolute power on the surface, there are hidden vulnerabilities in his position. If Xi falls ill, it won’t just be opposition forces pressuring him, even his trusted allies may turn against him. It could echo the situation Mao Zedong faced in his final days.”
“Mao Zedong believed Wang Dongxing and Hua Guofeng were honest individuals and entrusted them. But it was precisely Hua Guofeng and Wang Dongxing who seized control immediately after Mao’s passing. The struggle is a harsh reality, and Xi Jinping is currently relying on tactics of intimidation to govern. However, when you fall ill, who will you intimidate?” he concluded.