On Monday (October 19, 2026), mainland storage manufacturer Changxin Technology’s stock price took a nosedive, with its market value evaporating over 200 billion yuan. The stock price trend went against the positive news. Recently, Changxin Technology released a forecast for the first three quarters, a share repurchase plan, and news of a breakthrough in next-generation memory technology, but the reality is that each of the three positive news items hides risks.
Changxin Technology’s closing price on Monday (October 19, 2026) was 41.52 yuan, a drop of 7.77%, causing a market value decrease of over 200 billion yuan, more than a 1.3 trillion yuan drop compared to its peak market value.
On October 15, the closing price of Changxin Technology’s stock fell by 5.24%, bringing its total market value below 3 trillion yuan, and dropping from the first to the third place in A-share market value.
Industry insiders are particularly concerned about why Changxin Technology’s stock price continues to plummet despite the backdrop of these positive news items.
On the evening of October 16, Changxin Technology released a performance forecast for the first three quarters, expecting a revenue of 265-270 billion yuan, and a net profit of 131-132.5 billion yuan, turning a loss in the year-on-year comparison. However, compared to the second quarter with a revenue growth rate of 95.9% and a net profit growth rate of 113.4%, the revenue growth rate in the third quarter ranged from 15.25% to 20.3%, and the net profit growth rate ranged from 1.04% to 3.88%. Both the revenue and net profit growth rates have sharply declined.
Changxin Technology did not provide a detailed explanation for the sharp decline in revenue and net profit in the announcement, but another domestic storage industry company that has disclosed its performance forecast mentioned changes in the industry.
According to a report by China’s First Finance, based on the performance forecast data recently disclosed by storage module and brand manufacturer Jiang Bolong, the company’s non-GAAP net profit in the third quarter decreased by 22% to 38% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Jiang Bolong mentioned that the global storage market supply and demand balance remained tight in the third quarter. However, due to the impact of the higher price base in the previous period, the price increase of DRAM and NAND flash memory has significantly narrowed, and the marginal contribution of storage price increases to the company’s profit has slowed significantly.
Market research institutions also have expectations for the narrowing of price increases. TrendForce Consulting expects that in the third quarter of this year, the average DRAM price increase will range from 13% to 18% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, a narrower increase compared to the previous quarter, with further reduction to 10% to 15% in the fourth quarter.
On October 10, 2026, Changxin Technology announced that its 4F² DRAM architecture research and development had made a key breakthrough, and planned to launch a new generation of DDR5 RDIMM (enterprise server memory) products integrating this technology by the end of 2026.
However, many in the industry believe that Changxin Technology’s report did not clearly indicate manufacturing yield or wafer output, which could pose significant challenges in initial yield rates for the new architecture. Without this information disclosed, it is difficult to prove its competitiveness and high production efficiency.
Additionally, in the performance forecast, Changxin Technology’s chairman proposed using self-owned or self-raised funds to repurchase a portion of the issued ordinary shares through centralized auction trading, with a total repurchase amount of not less than 1 billion yuan and no more than 2 billion yuan.
Stock repurchases often have a stabilizing and uplifting effect on the company’s share price. However, it is clear that a stock repurchase of 2 billion yuan is negligible compared to a market value of nearly 3 trillion yuan, only indicating that the company itself is optimistic about its development prospects.
Industry analyst Chen Meng, in an interview with a reporter from Financial Investment News, said, “Changxin Technology’s significant growth in performance forecast, but the stock price continues to decline, is mainly due to the mismatch between ‘performance realization’ and ‘expected transactions.'”
“From an industry perspective, the rise in storage prices and profit recovery have already been fully reflected in the previous stock prices. The market is more concerned about potential price declines, increased production capital expenditure, and depreciation pressures. The positive performance triggers a ‘warning of good news.’ In addition, pressure on overseas technology stocks has transmitted to A-shares, funds are withdrawn from overvalued growth stocks, and individual stocks struggle to remain strong.”