【Epoch Times News on October 20, 2026】Taipei City Xinmin Cross-Strait Research Association and polling experts held a press conference today to announce the results of the second round of polling for the Taipei City Mayor election. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Shen Boyang, has a support rate of 50.3%, while the incumbent mayor from the Kuomintang (KMT), Jiang Wan’an, stands at 33.3%, with a gap of 17 percentage points between them. Although Shen Boyang leads in support, the actual estimated voting rate is between “leading by 7 percentage points to trailing by 1 percentage point.”
The Taiwan 2026 nine-in-one local elections are approaching, and the Xinmin Association released the results of the second round of polling for the Taipei City Mayor election at the press conference held today.
Huang Qinglong, the founding chairman of the Xinmin Association, stated that the survey was commissioned to Dai Li’an for questionnaire design and analysis, with Burke Market Research Company conducting telephone interviews. The survey targeted Taipei City residents aged 20 and above, conducted from the 14th to the 16th of the month, with a successful completion of interviews with 1,075 people (753 landline, 322 mobile). The maximum sampling error was ±3.0%. The survey results are as follows:
1. Suitability to Serve as Taipei City Mayor:
The survey showed that 41.2% of respondents deemed Jiang Wan’an suitable for the position, a decrease of 8.8 percentage points from September; 46.8% considered him unsuitable, an increase of 8.5 percentage points from September. It can be observed that over the past month, the evaluation of Jiang Wan’an’s suitability as Taipei City Mayor has turned negative by 17.3%.
As for Shen Boyang, the survey indicated that 56.6% of Taipei residents surveyed deemed him suitable to serve as Mayor, an increase of 10.4 percentage points from September; 27.5% believed he was unsuitable, a decrease of 5.0 percentage points from September. This shows a positive shift of 15.4% in the evaluation of Shen Boyang’s suitability as Taipei City Mayor.
2. Current Voting Support:
Jiang Wan’an 33.3% (down from 41.7% in September); Shen Boyang 50.3% (up from 40.5% in September). Shen Boyang’s support increased by 9.8 percentage points, while Jiang Wan’an’s support decreased by 8.4 percentage points. Shen Boyang turned from trailing by 1.2 percentage points to leading by 17 percentage points.
Cross-analysis shows that only the 50-59 age group, individuals with a high school education, People’s Party supporters, and Pan-Blue supporters tend to favor Jiang Wan’an over Shen Boyang. The rest of the population clearly leans towards supporting Shen Boyang, especially in neighborhoods like Zhongshan, Datong, among individuals aged 20-29 and 40-49, or those with a junior high school and graduate school education, or Pan-Green supporters, with over 55% supporting Shen Boyang.
Additionally, 19.0% of People’s Party supporters intend to vote for Shen Boyang, an increase of 17.4 percentage points from September, while 34.2% of neutral respondents plan to vote for Shen Boyang, an 8.3 percentage point increase from September. Notably, among respondents who are definite in voting, 56.7% support Shen Boyang, while 35.2% back Jiang Wan’an.
6. At Present Vote Estimation:
1. The “estimated voting rate” calculation includes parameters such as voting intention, intensity, previous voting results, etc. If voting were to occur now, under different turnout rates, Shen Boyang’s estimated vote rate ranges from 49.2% to 52.9%, while Jiang Wan’an’s vote rate ranges from 46.9% to 49.9%. Shen Boyang could lead by up to 6%, with Jiang Wan’an leading by up to 0.7%.
2. The results of this survey, with Shen Boyang leading Jiang Wan’an by 17% (50.3% compared to 33.3%), and last week’s New Taipei survey showing Su Chia-hui leading Li Sichuan by 13.1%, can be seen as trends in public opinion under the influence of the “Yangtze flow.”
Su Chia-hui has clearly benefited from the “overflow” of the “Yangtze flow,” while Shen Boyang is the true “epicenter” and “source,” with more enthusiastic supporters. However, because of this, some KMT supporters have also become more low-profile, forming a so-called “silent spiral.” Taking all of this into consideration, while Shen Boyang leads Jiang Wan’an by 17% in support, the actual estimated vote rate falls in the range of “leading by 7 percentage points to trailing by 1 percentage point.”