NATO member Estonia’s Intelligence Bureau Chief, Kaupo Rosin, recently warned that Russian President Putin is facing increasingly serious pressures on the fronts of economy and internal politics. While there are currently no signs indicating an imminent street revolution in Russia, if there were to be major political changes in Moscow, the situation could turn around overnight.
In an interview with the British newspaper “The Telegraph,” Rosin stated that the options Putin is currently facing are “all very bad.”
“But I must say, if something were to happen in Russia, it would happen very quickly, and we would all be surprised. If that day indeed comes, it will be a sudden turn of events,” Rosin added.
He pointed out that every decision Putin makes carries different risks: if he continues to push forward with the war, he will face more military casualties, economic downturn, and social unrest; but if he chooses to stop the war, he may be seen as weak, thus weakening his political authority.
“Of course, some people believe he should continue, but the voices calling for him to reevaluate the current situation are growing stronger,” Rosin added.
He emphasized that this situation is gradually being recognized by more and more people in Russia, from the general public to those who control funds, weapons and information, and even some oligarchs, all have increasing concerns and dissatisfaction with the war.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the war has been ongoing for over four and a half years. The UK Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) recently estimated that about 500,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war.
Rosin stated that the number of casualties in the Russian military on the battlefield has exceeded the rate of new recruits. He believes that the probability of Putin announcing another military mobilization is “50-50, but so far, no decisions have been seen.”
The Russian economy has also been severely damaged. Rosin analyzed that one of the reasons is the long-range strikes launched by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure, and oil revenue is the main source of income for Russia’s budget. “There are already huge financial problems. The budget deficit has exceeded this year’s planned deficit, and we estimate it could reach about 10 trillion rubles (approximately $116 billion), equivalent to half of the defense budget.”
Rosin finally mentioned that the 2023 Wagner event showed that the Russian political system “may be very hollow internally.” “They may seem invincible from the outside, but internally, they could be unexpectedly fragile.”