Recently, the various provincial-level Party committees of the Chinese Communist Party have successively held the new session of provincial Party congresses, drawing attention to the issue of aging among provincial standing committee members. Experts believe that this is related to the long-term calculations of the Party leader, Xi Jinping.
According to official Chinese Communist Party news, the 12th Party Congress of the Anhui Provincial Committee was opened in Hefei on the morning of October 19 and closed on the afternoon of the 22nd; the 11th Representative Conference of Xinjiang of the Chinese Communist Party was opened in Urumqi on the 19th and closed on the morning of the 23rd. Other provinces have also announced the opening times of their Party congresses, with Jiangxi, Hunan, Hebei, Guangxi, and Fujian scheduled to hold meetings in November, while Liaoning will convene in December. It is expected that all provincial-level Party congresses will be completed by June next year to complete the leadership transition.
In recent times, many provinces in China have made significant adjustments in their provincial-level officials, including Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Anhui, Henan, and Fujian.
It is generally believed that the leadership transition at the provincial level is a prelude to the personnel layout of the 21st Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. The issue of aging in the Chinese Communist Party is of great concern.
X Account “China Personnel Observation,” which frequently follows Chinese Communist Party personnel issues, analyzed, “After the leadership transition in 2011/2012, there were 117 ‘post-60s’ provincial standing committee members, accounting for 29.1%. After the leadership transition in 2021/2022, there were only 68 ‘post-70s’ provincial standing committee members, accounting for 17.3%, which is nearly half less compared to the ‘post-60s’ ten years ago. After the leadership transition in 2026/2027, it is expected that the number of ‘post-75s’ provincial standing committee members will further decrease compared to the ‘post-70s’ five years ago. This is the most apparent manifestation of the aging of leadership cadres at the provincial level.”
The above data was found in statistical reports from Caixin.com on July 5, 2012, and July 1, 2022.
After the leadership transition in 2021/2022, among the 68 “post-70s” provincial standing committee members were 2 “post-70s” deputy secretaries of the provincial Party committee (Zhu Guyujie, Shi Guanghui) and 4 “post-75s” provincial standing committee members (Ren Wei, Zhang Hongwen, Zhang Xiaoqiang, Yilizhati Aihemaitejiang). After the transition, the youngest provincial standing committee member in the country was Ren Wei, a standing committee member of the Tibet Party Committee and Deputy Governor of the autonomous region, born in May 1976.
“China Personnel Observation” believes that in this round of leadership transition, whether there will be less than 68 provincial standing committee members who are ‘post-75s,’ whether there will be deputy secretaries of the provincial Party committee who are ‘post-75s’, and whether there will be ‘post-80s’ provincial standing committee members, are worth observing.
Chinese affairs expert Wang He told Epoch Times that during the time of Deng Xiaoping, there was a push for younger officials, with Xi Jinping becoming a provincial and ministerial-level official in his forties, joining the Politburo standing committee at 54 as a successor and taking over at 59. But such a scenario is no longer possible now.
He stated that after Xi Jinping came to power, the aging of the central committee of the Chinese Communist Party became more prominent, which is closely related to Xi’s decision not to designate a successor. Xi would rather use trusted elderly officials than easily promote younger individuals. Currently, a large number of officials born in the 1970s are still stuck at the deputy provincial-level position.
“The aging of officials in the entire officialdom is now possibly the most severe in the past few decades for the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping is a beneficiary of the trend of younger officials. But in order to stay in power for a long time, he may even implement a lifelong rule and artificially abolish the system of succession within the Chinese Communist Party,” he said.
Wang He believes that Xi Jinping has systematically suppressed the group of officials born in the 1970s who could potentially succeed him, allowing him enough time for long-term governance. He has carefully planned this strategy.
He pointed out that Xi Jinping has reversed Deng Xiaoping’s policy of promoting younger officials and is now promoting an aging cadre.
In recent years, there have been many instances in the Chinese Communist Party where senior officials have stayed in power beyond retirement age, such as Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office Director Xia Baolong, Taiwan Affairs Office Director Song Tao, and Procurator-General of the Supreme People’s Procuratorate Ying Yong.
Wang He believes that currently, most of the department-level officials in the Chinese Communist Party are from the 1960s generation, which is relatively old. With the presence of these over-aged officials, there is growing dissatisfaction and resentment among officials from the 1970s and 1980s, bringing instability to the political landscape.
In recent times, Chinese official media have repeatedly published articles disparaging young officials.
On September 2, the official Chinese Communist Party media People’s Daily criticized young officials for being eager for quick success, shunning difficulties, being overly eager for achievements, and having a skewed perception of achievements.
During the early August meeting in Beidaihe last year, an article in a publication from the Organization Department of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party criticized the problem of young officials being “eager for quick success,” stating that the cultivation of young officials requires a “slow-cooking” process.
In a speech made public in 2023 for the first time, Xi Jinping mentioned, “Outstanding young cadres cannot become a special group, waiting to be promoted like crown princes.” Independent commentator Du Zheng wrote in the Shanghai Report that this indicates Xi Jinping’s deep-seated aversion to high-ranking officials who are rumored to be “successors.”
Lu Dongliang, born in December 1973, is currently the youngest provincial-level official in the Chinese Communist Party and the highest-ranking official at the provincial level.
In recent years, Chinese official and external propaganda media have continually praised Lu Dongliang as the so-called “youngest provincial governor” and “youngest minister.” However, it is believed that in the era of Xi Jinping, being the “youngest” in the political arena has become an ominous label that easily attracts suspicion.
The first department-level official born in the 1970s, former Director of the China Banking Regulatory Commission Li Yunze, has already been quietly removed from office. In May of this year, he was dismissed from his post as a national People’s Congress deputy. Li Yunze, born in September 1970, was a candidate member of the 20th Central Committee.
On October 15 this year, the magazine “Qiushi” published an article by Xi Jinping titled “Advancing Comprehensive and Strict Party Governance with Higher Standards and More Practical Measures,” emphasizing that “regardless of who, no matter how high the position, no matter how great the contribution, as long as corruption is involved, there will be no tolerance!” The article warns against people with dual goals and inconsistent words and acts, pointing out that they move towards where there is benefit and are always ready to jump ship. It also states that during the leadership transition, “two-faced individuals” must not be allowed to pass through.
Xi Jinping specifically emphasized stepping up investigations into young officials.
Feng Chongyi, associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney, told Epoch Times that the Chinese Communist Party is absurd; at the provincial level, there needs to be a transition of power, but Xi Jinping, who is now 73 years old, refuses to step down. Many people of the same age range, whether 65 or 70, have been forced out. It is believed that they are extremely dissatisfied. Therefore, Xi Jinping’s killer tool for dealing with dissatisfied officials is the anti-corruption campaign.
“Because he wants to promote some new people who are loyal to him, those who do not want to give way, those who are dissatisfied, he uses anti-corruption methods to remove them, a case of killing chickens to scare monkeys. The anti-corruption campaign has been ongoing, this is the idea,” he said.