On Wednesday, August 26th, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates warned that artificial intelligence (AI) will permanently replace a large number of white-collar and blue-collar jobs. He urged governments to impose taxes on AI and robots, as well as to designate certain “human-exclusive” positions to mitigate the impact of technological changes on the job market.
Gates published an article on his personal website, Gates Notes, stating that “many jobs will disappear forever.” He believes that AI could be both the “greatest equalizer in history” and the “most severe source of inequality,” yet governments worldwide are not adequately prepared for this disruptive transformation.
According to Gates, AI cannot simply be equated with past technological changes. The transition from agricultural labor to office work took several generations and created numerous new jobs requiring human thought. However, today’s AI has the capability to replace or even surpass some human cognitive abilities by executing tasks relying on existing equipment and systems.
He predicts that within the next decade, AI will have a significant impact on fields such as law, customer service, healthcare, software development, and manufacturing, with entry-level and medium-skilled positions facing the most immediate threats. The advancement of robot technology could also affect physically demanding jobs in sectors like construction, hospitality, and food services.
Gates suggested the establishment of a category of positions called “Human Reserved,” encompassing jobs that society determines should continue to be performed by humans even if machines have the capacity to do so. This concept could be permanent or serve as temporary protection for certain positions as AI gradually enters specific industries.
Examples he cited for inclusion in this category are caregiving, companionship, as well as some medical and educational roles. For instance, even if AI possesses the technical capability to provide medical diagnoses, disclosing information concerning critical or sensitive medical conditions may still need human intervention. However, Gates acknowledged that governments face challenging decisions in defining which jobs should be reserved for humans.
Additionally, Gates advocated for taxes on the utilization of AI tokens and robots. He pointed out that while companies must pay wages for employing workers, purchasing robots can often be deducted as a business expense, which effectively incentivizes the substitution of labor with machines. Taxing AI and robots could moderately slow down this substitution process and provide funding for retraining unemployed individuals and enhancing social security.
Gates also cautioned that AI may lower the barriers for activities such as fraud, cyberattacks, bioterrorism, surveillance, and the dissemination of false information. He particularly expressed concerns about children forming emotional bonds with AI companions and becoming overly reliant on AI, potentially affecting their psychological development and independent thinking abilities.
However, he also noted that AI is poised to accelerate medical research, improve disease diagnostics, expand educational opportunities, and assist in addressing agricultural, energy, and climate change issues.
Gates called for the establishment of new national and international organizations to manage the impacts of AI. He believed that a global framework is necessary to address the risks associated with AI.
US Congressman Greg Casar, a Texas Democratic Party member, supported taxing AI. On Wednesday, he stated on the social platform X that tech billionaires like Gates also consider taxing AI necessary to address the potential massive unemployment caused by AI. Casar had previously introduced relevant legislation in Congress.
However, Adam Michel, a researcher at the Cato Institute, raised questions about some of Gates’ assertions. He argued that empirical research generally indicates that new technology investments tend to complement rather than replace human labor. Taxing robots and related capital could potentially impede technological progress and be detrimental to wage increases and expanding job opportunities.
Retired professor Oren Etzioni from the University of Washington believed that while Gates accurately pointed out the employment displacement issues caused by AI, the proposed solutions are mostly mistaken. He supported taxing AI but believed that taxing the utilization of AI tokens could drive up the costs of AI services in the US, prompting consumers to seek lower-priced AI products from China.
Etzioni stated that the impact of AI on the job market may not primarily manifest as mass layoffs, but rather as companies deciding not to create positions originally planned due to AI’s efficiency improvements. He advocated for enhancing AI skills training programs and assisting laborers affected by AI to transition to industries like nursing that rely more on interpersonal interactions.
Overall, the discussion led by Bill Gates regarding the effects of AI and the potential measures to protect human jobs amidst technological advancements has sparked a global conversation on the future of work and the role of artificial intelligence in shaping societies worldwide.