Analysis: Intensifying AI Competition between the US and China, Southeast Asia “Remains Neutral” Under Pressure

Amid the escalating competition between the United States and China over artificial intelligence (AI) technology and supply chains, Southeast Asian countries are facing new pressures regarding their longstanding “non-aligned” strategy.

According to a report by the South China Morning Post on Friday, both the US and China are actively vying to recruit Southeast Asian countries into their respective dominant artificial intelligence cooperation organizations.

Washington had previously promoted the establishment of the “Pax Silica Alliance” initiative to strengthen cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence models, semiconductors, and critical mineral supply chains, aiming to reduce reliance on China’s supply chains. Singapore and the Philippines are currently the two Southeast Asian countries that have joined the initiative.

In July, Beijing established the “World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization” (Waico) in Shanghai, with initial members mainly from global southern countries. Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, and Myanmar are among the five Southeast Asian countries that have become members.

According to a Reuters report on August 14 citing US officials and a draft internal memorandum from the US State Department, Washington is preparing to issue warnings to 35 countries that have signed the “AI Opportunity Statement,” urging them to carefully choose their cooperative alignment.

The draft suggests that a country may risk exclusion from the US-led AI cooperation framework if it simultaneously joins another artificial intelligence organization that competes with the “Pax Silica Alliance.”

It emphasizes that joining multiple systems may not yield the same member commitments and urges relevant countries to “carefully choose” their position on artificial intelligence cooperation. The US State Department has not commented on the leaked media report regarding the internal document.

Kazakhstan is known to have simultaneously joined both the Chinese and American initiatives, drawing special attention from Washington due to its significant critical mineral resources.

Meanwhile, Beijing views the Waico organization as a key platform to expand its influence among global southern countries, especially in aggressively promoting its interests in Southeast Asia.

Sources cited by the South China Morning Post revealed that in recent months, Chinese officials have lobbied ASEAN members to join the Waico organization in Shanghai, emphasizing the exclusive privileges available to founding members.

Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, pointed out that Southeast Asia may become a crucial battleground for US-China artificial intelligence competition.

He believes that while Southeast Asian countries still hope to maintain a “neutral” position between the US and China, pressure from Washington and Beijing is making this stance increasingly challenging.

Dylan Loh, Associate Professor of Foreign Policy at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, noted that pressure from the US and China on Southeast Asia is not a new phenomenon, but both sides are now openly demanding countries to make choices.

As artificial intelligence models, chips, and critical minerals become strategic competition points, how Southeast Asian countries navigate between the US-led technology system and China’s open AI ecosystem while maintaining cooperation with both parties will pose a new challenge to their “non-alignment” policy.