On September 21st, a research report released by the Chinese economic research institution Ze Ping Macro showed that the absolute and relative housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, four first-tier cities in China, are among the top globally in 2026. However, the rental yield remains low.
The report titled “Global Comparison of Housing Prices in First-tier Cities: 2026” was released by Ze Ping Macro. The report indicated that the absolute and relative housing prices in Chinese first-tier cities are at the forefront globally.
Comparing with representative global core cities like New York and London in 2026, after considering holding costs and calculating by usable floor area, the housing price-to-income ratios in the central areas of New York, London, and Tokyo were 18, 15, and 11, respectively, while in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, they were 28, 28, 24, and 23.
According to the report, based on a calculation of 10 million RMB, the residential usable floor area that can be purchased near the CBD (Central Business District) in the core areas of Beijing, Shanghai, New York, and London is similar, ranging from 61 to 73 square meters. In the outer areas of the city centers, Beijing and Shanghai can purchase residential units with over 145 square meters of usable floor area, while London and New York can purchase units with over 120 square meters. The housing price-to-income ratios in the central areas of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are 27, 28, 23, and 22, respectively, higher than 11 in New York, 8 in Tokyo, and 12 in London. The ratios for the outer areas are all above 9, also higher than New York, London, and Tokyo.
Although residents in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have mortgage-to-income ratios below 200%, they still rank among the top globally, being 1-3 times higher than those in New York, London, and Tokyo.
Despite high housing prices in Chinese first-tier cities, the rental yield is low. The rental yields in the central areas of New York, London, and Tokyo are 3.2%, 2.8%, and 2.4%, respectively, while in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, they are 2.0%, 1.8%, 1.6%, and 1.4%, respectively. A low rental yield indicates a low cash discount rate for real estate investments, which is the ratio of annual rent to selling price.
The report acknowledges the unique characteristics of the real estate market in China. It pointed out that housing prices in Chinese first and second-tier cities are not determined by the local median income group but by the national high-income population. Additionally, incomplete statistics on residents’ income in China make housing price-to-income ratios and rental yields incomparable internationally.
The report believes that real estate remains China’s largest pillar industry, and a stable real estate market leads to economic stability, job stability, and financial stability.
Public information shows that Ze Ping Macro is an economic research institution and content self-media platform founded by economist Ren Ze Ping in 2014. The platform uses “applied economics” as its analytical framework and releases macroeconomic analysis reports and viewpoints through channels such as WeChat public accounts and video platforms.