The Taiwan Inspiration Association (TIA) held a press conference today (27th) to announce the results of the July Taiwan Situation Opinion Survey. The survey shows that public positive evaluation of Taiwan’s overall economy has risen to 56%, marking a new high since the six rounds of tracking surveys.
The July “Taiwan Situation Survey” released by TIA was conducted from July 15th to 19th, with a total of 1,200 valid samples (600 residential phone and mobile samples each), interviewing people over 20 years old nationwide. Dr. Lai Rongwei, the CEO of TIA, and Assistant Professor Hong Yaonan from the Department of Diplomacy and International Relations at Tamkang University, attended the press conference to analyze the survey results.
According to the survey, 56% of the people believe that Taiwan’s current overall economic situation is good (11% very good, 45% somewhat good), higher than the 44% who think it is not good (30% not very good, 14% not good at all). The positive evaluation of the economy has been on a continuous upward trend, rising from 44% in September last year to the current 56%, reaching a new high in the six rounds of the survey.
However, there are significant differences in economic perceptions among different age groups. 48% of people aged 20 to 59 think the economy is bad, significantly higher than the 38% among those aged 60 and above. In terms of education level, high school graduates have the highest rate of negative perception (53%), while those with primary school education or below have the lowest (24%). In terms of political affiliation, 65% of Kuomintang supporters believe the economy is not good, while the figure is 58% for People’s Party supporters and only 22% for Democratic Progressive Party supporters.
The reasons cited for the perception of a poor economy include “high prices” at 42%, followed by “too much wealth disparity” (35%), “low income” (33%), and “high housing prices” (29%). Hong Yaonan pointed out that the age group of 20 to 29 strongly feels the impact of high prices and low income, more so than other age groups.
Lai Rongwei emphasized that the 30 to 49 age group has long had the most critical evaluation of the government’s governance and the economy, but it shows strong support for precise family policies. He believes that although the overall economic signals are positive, the key link is how to make people feel the positive impact at the personal and family level, transforming positive economic data into political support.
President Lai Ching-te stated in an international media interview that “Taiwan should uphold its national security, maintain its democratic and free way of life, reject ‘unification’, and refuse to accept Communist Party rule.” 71% of the people agreed (40% strongly agree, 31% somewhat agree), higher than the 28% who disagreed. The agreement rate decreases with age, from 82% in the 20-29 age group to 66% in those over 50. In terms of political affiliation, 90% of DPP supporters agreed, 75% of those without political affiliation, 68% of People’s Party supporters, and even 43% of Kuomintang supporters expressed agreement.
Another question about setting up a “Chinese People Contact Window” by the National Security Bureau to enhance national security and counteract CCP infiltration garnered 56% agreement from the public (20% strongly agreed, 36% somewhat agreed), higher than the 40% who disagreed. The agreement rate is higher among men (64%) than women (49%), and it increases with age, reaching 73% in the 20-29 age group and 51% among those aged 60 and above. In terms of political affiliation, the agreement rate is 69% among DPP supporters, 57% among People’s Party supporters, and 44% among Kuomintang supporters and those without political affiliation.
The Executive Yuan proposed a special law for the procurement of unmanned vehicles, planning to allocate up to NT$210 billion over the next few years to purchase drones, unmanned watercraft, and other equipment. 61% of the people expressed support (30% strongly support, 31% somewhat support), surpassing the 37% who do not support. The support rate is higher among men (66%) than women (57%), with both the 20-29 age group and those aged 60 and above reaching 66%. Those with lower education levels, such as under primary school education, showed the highest support at 80%. In terms of political affiliation, 85% of DPP supporters, 62% of those without political affiliation, 45% of People’s Party supporters, and only 35% of Kuomintang supporters expressed support.
Lai Rongwei pointed out that the 20-29 age group had two highlights in this survey: strong support for defense technologies like drones and high concern for structural issues such as prices and income. He believes that the younger generation’s identification with national defense and technology development is a clear trend, but the perception of life pressures should not be ignored.
The survey shows that 56% of the people are satisfied with the government’s current governance performance (13% very satisfied, 43% somewhat satisfied), higher than the 42% who are dissatisfied (24% not very satisfied, 18% not satisfied at all). While this is a slight decrease compared to the 59% in the May survey, there is no statistically significant difference in the overall trends.
Further analysis shows that the 30-39 age group has the highest dissatisfaction rate at 55%, while those aged 60 and above have the lowest at 36%. The differences are particularly pronounced in terms of political affiliation, with 71% dissatisfaction among KMT supporters, 64% among People’s Party supporters, 42% among those without political affiliation, and only 15% among DPP supporters.
The reasons for dissatisfaction with the government’s governance include “political disputes” at 45%, followed by “scams” (39%), “price issues” (28%), and “judicial issues” (26%). It is worth noting that the 20-29 age group had the highest rate of consideration for “wage issues” at 30%, significantly higher than other age groups.
Hong Yaonan’s analysis points out that public satisfaction with governance reflects a dual role of economic perceptions and political affiliation, with no single factor fully explaining it. Despite believing the economy is not doing well, DPP supporters are still inclined to be satisfied with the government’s performance. On the other hand, even if they acknowledge the good economic conditions, Kuomintang and People’s Party supporters show only about 45% satisfaction with the government’s performance. He believes that economic perceptions are modulated by political affiliations, and government satisfaction cannot be solely attributed to objective economic figures or party positions, closely related to the polarization trend in Taiwanese politics.
Lai Rongwei added that the DPP’s base is around 40%, but both governance satisfaction and positive economic evaluations exceed this base, demonstrating an “overflow effect.” He emphasized that the challenge for the ruling party is how to translate the positive evaluations at the central level into actual voting support in local elections.
The performance evaluation of the Legislative Yuan continues to decline. Only 35% of the people expressed satisfaction (4% very satisfied, 31% somewhat satisfied), while a high 61% expressed dissatisfaction (31% not very satisfied, 31% not satisfied at all). Compared to 39% in May this year, the satisfaction rate has decreased by about 4.5 percentage points, reaching the lowest point since TIA initiated tracking satisfaction with the Legislative Yuan.
Hong Yaonan differentiated the reasons for dissatisfaction into “political dispute group” and “non-political dispute group” for cross-analysis. After excluding political factors, the proportion of those who thought “failed to effectively solve livelihood issues” rose sharply from 32% to 54.1%, becoming the primary source of dissatisfaction. He pointed out that public dissatisfaction with the Legislative Yuan has shifted from the past “you are too noisy” to “you are doing too little,” demanding a return of the parliament’s focus to livelihood issues like prices, wages, and housing, with negative views of the Legislative Yuan transcending party boundaries, becoming a bipartisan consensus.
Regarding the issue of the fate of the Control Yuan, the highest rate of support was for “reform and retain” at 38%, followed by “constitutional abolition” (29%) and “maintain the status quo” (27%), with another 6% expressing no opinion or not knowing.
Government plans such as the monthly NT$5,000 child allowance and other family support measures received 73% support from the public (34% strongly support, 39% somewhat support), higher than the 27% who do not support (17% not very supportive, 10% not supportive at all), making it one of the highest bipartisan consensus policy issues in this survey.
A survey of public favorability towards political figures showed that Taipei Mayor Jiang Wanan led with 49%, followed by President Lai Ching-te at 45%, Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan at 41%, Legislative Yuan President Han Guoyu at 39%, DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Boyang at 27%, and KMT Chairwoman Zheng Liwen at 18%, with 12% expressing no opinion or not knowing.
Regarding the most suitable candidate to represent the KMT in the 2028 presidential election, Jiang Wanan topped with 30%, followed by Lu Xiuyan at 23%, Han Guoyu at 19%, and Zheng Liwen at 5%, with 3% considering other KMT members and 16% thinking none are suitable, and 5% expressing no opinion or not knowing.
52% of the people believe that KMT Chairwoman Zheng Liwen’s visit to the United States deducts points for the party, higher than the 35% who think it adds points, with another 13% expressing no opinion or not knowing.
The percentage of those who think deduction points increase with age, from 40% in the 20-29 age group to 63% in those aged 60 and above; while it decreases with higher education levels, from 76% for those with primary school education or below to 47% for those with high school education and above. In terms of political affiliation, DPP supporters had the highest rate of deduction points (79%), followed by those without political affiliation (44%), with only 27% of KMT supporters thinking deduction points.
Summarizing the trends from this survey and the past five rounds of public opinion polls, Lai Rongwei outlined three major trends.
Firstly, democratic values, sovereignty, and defense strengthening are solid bipartisan consensus. From opposing “one country, two systems” to supporting an increase in the defense budget, swing voters and People’s Party supporters are aligned with the ruling party. However, the specific strategies on “how to strengthen defense” are still influenced by party positions.
Secondly, people expect a principled but communicative political style. While on core values like sovereignty and democracy, the public supports holding firm positions, on general policy issues, voters want to see rational debates and communication, rather than endless confrontations. This orientation is reflected in bipartisan negative reviews in the Legislative Yuan and in the public preference for political figures.
Thirdly, from positive signals in the overall economy to personal and family perceptions, there is a need for precise policy alignment. The high cross-party support for the child growth allowance policy demonstrates that precise social and economic policies can overcome party barriers. Although the 30-49 age group has a more critical evaluation of governance and the economy, they show strong support for policy designs that directly address family needs.
Hong Yaonan concluded, stating that “what the people want is more effective governance, not more intense politics. Politics can have a position, but governance must have answers.” With the good economic performance becoming a societal consensus, political parties at this stage should focus on promoting distribution policies, allowing the fruits of economic growth to be felt by more people.