A report released by the McKinsey Global Institute on September 29 revealed that approximately 7% of the U.S. workforce, equivalent to 11 million employees, may need to transition to different occupations in the next decade. By 2035, automation is expected to impact 36 million job positions, with 10 professions facing the biggest challenges.
According to CNBC, the report suggests that propelled by the AI boom, the U.S. economy is projected to create over 40 million new job opportunities in the next decade. However, concurrently, by 2035, the widespread adoption of AI and other automation technologies could potentially lead to a 21% decrease in demand for existing positions, amounting to a reduction of 36 million job positions.
Approximately 25 million workers may be able to continue in their current occupations, albeit with changes in the nature of their work, while the remaining 11 million employees may need to switch to other fields.
Tanguy Catlin, Managing Director of the McKinsey Global Institute, stated, “The good news is that the demand for new jobs will exceed the number of positions reduced due to technological changes.”
However, Catlin also noted that for employees whose work is affected by the application of automation technology, the future career path may pose challenges.
Based on the number of full-time employees, estimated percentage of current job hours affected, and projected decrease in labor demand due to automation, the report lists the top ten professions most impacted by the application of automation technology.
[Please note: The list of professions with corresponding data such as number of employees, percentage of hours affected, and decrease in labor demand is provided.]
Catlin emphasized that the increasing prevalence of automation technology does not always imply a decrease in labor demand. He suggested that certain jobs are more likely to be “reshaped” or enhanced by the application of artificial intelligence (AI) rather than directly replaced.
For instance, while automation may impact 47% of job hours in the legal field, the expected decrease in labor demand is only 18%.
Catlin explained, “Lawyers used to spend a lot of time on research tasks, which AI can now handle, allowing lawyers to devote more time to tasks requiring human judgment.”
He added, “Your position or title may remain the same, but the way you allocate your time is undergoing significant changes.”
Based on these findings, Catlin stressed the importance of distinguishing between the amount of work within an organization that is theoretically automatable and the work that will actually be automated. He highlighted the role of decision-making by management in transforming these possibilities into reality, as technological advancements determine what is achievable.
It is estimated that the number of workers needing to transition occupations may range between 6 to 16 million, with 11 million as the baseline estimate.
Catlin expressed that for the 11 million workers compelled to switch roles, transitioning to entirely new positions will not be easy.
One-seventh of workers will have a “direct” pathway to new positions in emerging fields, meaning they can find roles with similar skills, easily attainable certifications, and competitive or higher salaries compared to their previous positions.
However, nearly 45% of workers may face unprecedented challenges, requiring relocation, significant skill enhancements, or acquiring new qualifications when seeking new employment, often with lower salaries than their previous positions.
Catlin noted, “Obtaining these qualifications may require time and financial investment which could be challenging for workers.”
Furthermore, to facilitate the transition of 11 million workers to new positions within the next decade, approximately 770,000 workers per year would need to change occupational categories, marking a transformation rate about 3.6 times faster than historical averages.
Catlin highlighted that while this shift is “feasible,” it requires “systemic planning” by employers and governments to assist workers in enhancing their skills. He emphasized that employees cannot close these skill gaps alone.
Simultaneously, Catlin recommended that employees focus on developing skills such as problem-solving, interpersonal communication, collaboration, critical thinking, curiosity, and a willingness to learn. He stated that these skills will “help you secure better jobs” and “maintain resilience in a continuously changing world.”
“The pace of change will never be as slow as it is today,” he continued, “thus, we need a workforce that embraces adaptability, continuous improvement, and lifelong learning.”