The European Union’s climate monitoring agency reported on Monday (October 12) that the El Niño phenomenon continues to intensify, with the sea surface temperature in the key monitoring area “Niño 3.4” in the Pacific Ocean reaching 29.70°C in September, setting a new historical high. This highlights the unusually severe nature of the current El Niño event, with experts assessing that the global warming conditions may persist until 2027.
According to reports from Agence France-Presse, global climate prediction agencies have been issuing continuous warnings for months that this El Niño event may be the strongest ever observed. Initially expected to peak later this year, records have already been broken earlier than anticipated. Experts are cautioning that this El Niño event could push global temperatures to new highs in 2027.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Union stated that the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region reached 29.70°C in September, surpassing the peak temperatures of several intense El Niño events in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016, emphasizing the abnormal intensity of the current El Niño event.
As the El Niño phenomenon continues to strengthen, the average sea surface temperature in the oceans outside the polar regions between 60 degrees south latitude and 60 degrees north latitude reached a record of 21.05°C in September, exceeding the previous high of 20.92°C in the same period in 2023. The Copernicus Climate Change Service also pointed out that September experienced the second-highest global temperature on record, with surface temperatures averaging 16.27°C, 1.63°C higher than pre-industrial levels (1850–1900).
However, the Copernicus Climate Change Service emphasized in a statement to AFP that “it is currently not possible to assert that this El Niño event is the strongest on record.” This is because climate change has raised ocean temperatures, which may make the surface temperature readings of recent El Niño events appear stronger than in the past.
The organization stated that a new index has taken into account the overall warming of tropical oceans, and after adjusting for that factor, the results show that the current event has not exceeded previous records. “However, the values observed in September indicate that this El Niño event is unusually strong, especially considering that it has not yet peaked.”
Currently, various forecasting agencies use different monitoring areas and criteria for the El Niño event. The Japan Meteorological Agency announced on October 9 that the El Niño event had reached its strongest intensity on record, with sea surface temperatures in its Niño 3 region in September exceeding normal levels by 4.0°C, the highest since records began in 1949.
Carlo Buontempo, Director of Copernicus, stated in a release, “We are entering a new period of several consecutive months with temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C. With the continued strengthening of the strong El Niño event, this situation may persist until 2027.”
This 1.5°C standard stems from the agreement reached at the 2015 Paris climate conference, where nations agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to strive to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
Scientists explain that the El Niño phenomenon causes the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to rise, thereby altering global atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, increasing the risk of droughts and floods in some regions. This phenomenon typically occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts for about 9 to 12 months.