A new study has pointed out that with the aging of the baby boomer generation and the silent generation, nearly 14 million housing units are expected to re-enter the US real estate market in the next decade. This significant increase in future housing supply may provide some relief, but due to a shortage of entry-level housing, the alleviation for first-time homebuyers could be quite limited.
According to an analysis report released by Realtor.com on October 5, over the next 10 years, the number of housing units owned and occupied by these two generations is expected to decrease from 36.7 million this year to 22.8 million by 2036. This means that approximately 1.39 million housing units are expected to become available annually as aging homeowners pass away or move into care facilities.
This trend is projected to accelerate over time; as more baby boomers reach their 80s, the number of housing units vacated is expected to increase from around 1.27 million in 2027 to 1.52 million in 2036.
The scale of housing turnover expected in the next decade will far exceed the previous ten years. Realtor.com estimates that between 2016 and 2026, the baby boomer and silent generations collectively released about 8 million housing units, but the total amount expected to be released in the next decade will be approximately 74% higher.
The addition of new housing units is expected to alleviate the supply constraints in the current residential market. According to Realtor.com’s statistics, between July 2025 and June 2026, there were 5.72 million listings of different types of properties on the market, which is about 570,000 fewer than the annual average before the COVID-19 pandemic. If 44.8% of the housing units released by aging homeowners in 2027 enter the public market, this alone could return the total listing inventory to pre-pandemic levels under unchanged conditions.
However, the extent to which this wave of housing releases, dubbed the “silver tsunami,” can help buyers may depend on the type of housing they are seeking.
Realtor.com’s analysis indicates that most of the new housing units are larger in size. Out of the projected 13.9 million units, approximately 9.9 million (71%) are family homes with 3 to 4 bedrooms, while around 3.6 million units have 5 or more bedrooms. It is estimated that only about 380,000 units are considered entry-level housing, i.e., houses with 2 bedrooms or less, averaging around 38,000 units per year.
This implies that this generational turnover may struggle to significantly improve the housing affordability for first-time buyers, who typically contend for lower-priced, smaller homes against other buyers.
Realtor.com points out that during the period from July 2025 to June 2026, listings of entry-level housing were still about 10% lower than the pre-pandemic average level. At the same time, the median listing price for homes with 0 to 2 bedrooms is about 65% higher (around $118,000) compared to before the pandemic.
The report’s author and economist, Jiayi Xu, stated, “Overall, the trend suggests that the market lacks not just entry-level housing but affordable entry-level housing: as remaining inventory increasingly leans towards higher-priced properties, entry-level buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to afford, leading to more listings going unsold.”
It appears that aging homeowners are more inclined to continue holding onto smaller-sized properties. Realtor.com estimates that the retention rate for entry-level housing over the next 10 years is 70.7%, higher than the 61.2% for 3 to 4 bedroom homes.
One potential reason for this could be that owners of smaller properties are more likely to have paid off their mortgages. Among owners aged 70 to 79, nearly 73% of those with entry-level housing have no mortgage debt, whereas only 65% of family home owners and about 59% of owners of 5 or more bedroom homes have paid off their mortgages.
A survey by Fannie Mae in 2024 also found that older Americans tend to prefer staying in their own homes. About 68% of baby boomer generation homeowners expressed they are likely to choose to age in place in their current residence.