The latest data released by the US government shows that the number of first-time unemployment claims dipped below 200,000 five times this year.
According to a report issued by the Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of first-time unemployment claims for the week ending September 12 decreased by 10,000 from the previous week to 196,000, well below the widely expected 208,000.
The number of first-time unemployment claims has been hovering between 189,000 and 230,000, hitting historic lows this year as companies have generally avoided large-scale layoffs.
Chris Osmond, Chief Investment Officer at Fifth Third Wealth Advisors, told The Epoch Times, “These data convey a clear message: the US labor market still has resilience.”
As for the public sector, the number of federal employees filing initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 10 to 398, also at historically low levels.
While US businesses are facing various adverse factors such as rising costs from tariffs and conflicts, layoffs have been minimal, and there are indications that hiring momentum may be strengthening.
The number of ongoing unemployment claims dropped to 1.73 million, the lowest level since January 2024. Economists use this as an indicator to measure the current hiring environment.
As we enter the fall season, there appears to be an accelerating growth in labor demand. Over the past few weeks, the number of job postings on the Indeed website has been on the rise.
A report from the ADP Research Institute stated that in the four weeks leading up to August 29, US private enterprises added an average of 16,250 jobs per week, up from the previous four weeks’ average of 12,250 jobs per week.
Nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000 in August, well above the market’s general expectation of 56,000.
However, economists at Oxford Economics noted in a research report on September 15 that the job growth reported last month may have been “overestimated due to seasonal factors.”
“It is encouraging to see that job growth is no longer limited to the healthcare sector, with industries such as transportation, and professional services also showing growth,” the report said. “However, job losses continue in the information and finance sectors, mainly due to the application of AI technology.”
The Federal Reserve believes that the labor market will remain a driver of economic growth in the coming years, with a projected median unemployment rate of 4.1% from 2026 to 2029.
The Fed raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points this week, the first hike since July 2023.