On September 14th and 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of the People’s Republic of China successively released financial and economic data for August.
The urban unemployment rate in August rose to 5.3%, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% in total retail sales of consumer goods, and an additional 60 billion yuan in new RMB loans. At the same time, the value-added of industrial enterprises above a designated size saw a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, surpassing market expectations.
These data show a clear differentiation: industrial production is accelerating, but consumption, household loans, and investment remain weak, and the employment market is under pressure.
The National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China announced on September 15th that the national urban unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from July, marking the highest level since March this year. The average urban unemployment rate for January to August was 5.2%, the same as the same period last year.
In August, the local registered unemployment rate was 5.3%, while the unemployment rate for non-local registered workers was 5.2%, with the unemployment rate for non-local agricultural registered workers at 5.0%. The urban unemployment rate for 31 major cities was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from July.
The increase in the urban unemployment rate in August was mainly affected by seasonal factors related to the departure of recent college graduates entering the labor market. The urban unemployment rate for labor force aged 30 to 59 was 3.9%, unchanged from July and the same period last year.
As of now, the youth unemployment rate for August has not been announced. In July, the urban youth labor force aged 16 to 24, excluding students, had an unemployment rate of 17.9%, up 3 percentage points from June.
In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 3.9824 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%, lower than the market expectation of 0.8%, and a 0.13% decrease from the previous month.
From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 32.7569 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%.
Breaking down the categories, in August, commodity retail sales were 3.528 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while catering revenue reached 454.4 billion yuan, up 1.1%.
In particular, the retail sales of automobiles were 327.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.5% year-on-year. Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods were 3.6545 trillion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year.
Other categories of retail sales saw declines in August, with a 17.5% drop in jewelry, 7.9% in furniture, 7.0% in petroleum and products, and 11.8% in construction and decoration materials. Meanwhile, communications equipment sales increased by 27.3%, tobacco and alcohol by 12.5%, and cultural and office supplies by 5.8%.
Compared to the consumer data, industrial production saw a faster growth in August.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, the value-added of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year in August, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points from July, with a monthly increase of 0.54%. From January to August, the value-added of industrial enterprises above a designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year.
Reuters reported that the 5.2% industrial growth rate in August exceeded the market expectation of 4.8%, while the 0.4% growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was below the expected 0.8%.
Even weaker than consumption data were the credit figures. The People’s Bank of China announced financial statistics for August on September 14th.
As of the end of August, the balance of RMB loans was 28.235 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the end of July, marking the slowest growth rate on record.
In August, RMB loans increased by 60 billion yuan, a turnaround from the decrease of 340 billion yuan in July, but a smaller year-on-year increase of 530 billion yuan. According to a Reuters survey, the market expected an addition of about 400 billion yuan in RMB loans in August.
From January to August, RMB loans increased by 10.44 trillion yuan, lower than the 13.46 trillion yuan of the same period last year.
In terms of segments, household loans decreased by 202.9 billion yuan in August, with short-term loans decreasing by 121.9 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans decreasing by 82.2 billion yuan. Household loans have decreased for the sixth consecutive month.
Corporate loans increased by 260 billion yuan in August, including a decrease of 160 billion yuan in short-term loans, an increase of 320 billion yuan in medium to long-term loans for enterprises, and an increase of 100 billion yuan in bill financing.
Reuters reported that household borrowing continued to contract, attributed to weak demand for mortgages and insufficient willingness of residents to borrow for consumption.
The increment of social financing in August was 1.66 trillion yuan. By the end of August, the stock of social financing reached 46.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%.
From January to August, the accumulative increment of social financing was 23.91 trillion yuan, 2.64 trillion yuan less than the same period last year.
Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy in the first eight months increased by 10.23 trillion yuan, 2.71 trillion yuan less than the same period last year; net financing for corporate bonds increased by 2.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.23 trillion yuan year-on-year; domestic stock financing for non-financial enterprises increased by 470 billion yuan, an increase of 203.1 billion yuan year-on-year.
The performance of fixed-asset investment has also continued the weak trend. From January to August, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 29.3092 trillion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year, further widening from the 6.7% decline in the first seven months.
Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, while investment in the manufacturing industry decreased by 2.3%, infrastructure investment by 4.0%, and real estate development investment by 19.9%; fixed asset investment in August decreased by 0.5% month-on-month.
Various indicators in the real estate market are also in a downward trend: from January to August, the national sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, with a 13.0% decrease in sales revenue; funds for real estate developers nationwide decreased by 21.0% over the year.
In August, the price trends of new residential housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed mixed results: first-tier cities saw a 0.1% increase from July, second-tier cities experienced a 0.1% decrease, and third-tier cities saw a 0.2% decrease. The year-on-year price decline of new residential housing in first, second, and third-tier cities continued to narrow, but the month-on-month prices of new homes in second and third-tier cities still decreased by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.
According to analysis quoted by Reuters, a comprehensive recovery in the real estate market is unlikely in the short term.