The Taipei mayoral election in 2026 is drawing closer, and the political landscape of Taiwan’s capital city is undergoing significant changes. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Shen Boyang has narrowed the gap in the latest polls to single digits, setting up a close competition. On the other hand, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities have exposed threats of “cross-border repression” against Shen Boyang through sanctions, wanted notices, and surveillance over the past year.
These two developments are shaping a new perspective on observing Taiwan’s political newcomers and the overall social democratic resilience.
On October 8th, a new survey revealed a dramatic shift in the Taipei election dynamics: support for Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Jiang Wan’an dropped below 50% to 49%, while support for Shen Boyang rose to 41%, significantly reducing the gap to 8 percentage points between the two candidates.
Taipei has traditionally been seen as the stronghold of the KMT’s “blue camp,” with incumbent mayor Jiang Wan’an enjoying an advantage in governing resources. In May this year, a survey by TVBS showed Jiang Wan’an leading Shen Boyang by a significant margin of 28 percentage points, with 58% of support compared to Shen Boyang’s 30%.
Analysis shows that Shen Boyang’s team broke away from traditional green camp colors since September, adopting orange as its main theme in an effort to downplay party colors and attract middle-ground and young voters with the “Yong Liu” movement, posing a serious challenge to Jiang Wan’an’s team that currently holds the advantage.
Cross-analysis indicates that 14% of former Jiang Wan’an supporters switched to Shen Boyang in May, and in the 20 to 29-year-old voter demographic, Shen Boyang leads Jiang Wan’an with 52% support against 44%.
A key moment in the intensified election campaign occurred on October 4th when Shen Boyang’s campaign headquarters inauguration rally attracted over 120,000 people.
Renowned cross-strait host Cai Kangyong made a low-key appearance to “see for himself” and listen to various opinions, which immediately sparked strong backlash from Chinese netizens, with “Cai Kangyong appearing at Taiwan independence supporter’s election rally” trending as the top topic on Weibo, leading to Zero Run Car, a mainland brand he previously collaborated with, promptly pulling his endorsement ads.
In response to this, Shen Boyang stated that participating in political events and understanding candidates’ platforms is a common practice in Taiwan’s democratic society.
Regarding the Taipei-Shanghai “Twin Cities Forum,” Shen Boyang, who is wanted by the mainland, stated that he does not rule out cross-strait city exchanges without political premises and national security risks. However, he emphasized that the tangible benefits would be reassessed.
He added that Taipei should not limit its city diplomacy to cross-strait matters but should engage in extensive collaboration with more international democratic cities, incorporating cybersecurity and urban resilience into city governance.
As the election intensifies, judiciary authorities disclosed a case of surveillance conducted within Taiwan, unveiling details of the Beijing regime’s cross-border infiltration of Taiwanese political figures to the public.
On October 7th, the Taipei District Prosecutors Office formally concluded the investigation of the case, revealing that two Hong Kong individuals, in September 2024, paid around HK$100,000 to a Taiwanese private investigator to carry out long-term monitoring of Shen Boyang.
According to the indictment, the suspects not only tracked Shen Boyang by car but also installed miniature cameras on motorcycles near Shen Boyang’s residence, continuously filming Shen Boyang and his family entering and leaving their home from October 1st to November 8th, 2024. The Taipei District Prosecutors Office charged the suspects with violating the Personal Information Protection Act.
Shen Boyang stated that he had been targeted by Beijing even before entering politics, and similar surveillance situations “shouldn’t be limited to just me,” indicating that such actions are intended to create a chilling effect on everyone.
In addition to physical surveillance within Taiwan, Shen Boyang and his family also face direct security threats. On April 17, 2025, Shen Boyang publicly revealed receiving anonymous threatening letters against his family, demanding him to resign as a legislator and leave politics, with the sender even threatening harm to his wife and daughters. Police investigations traced the threatening messages back to using network proxies in Brazil and Japan.
Amidst physical surveillance and threats, the Beijing authorities simultaneously initiated a “legal war” extending their jurisdiction.
This legal oppression timeline dates back to 2024 when Beijing announced sanctions against Shen Boyang and entrepreneur Cao Xingcheng, prohibiting them and their families from entering mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau while also forbidding local business operations, citing charges of “spreading toxic anti-China and supporting Taiwan independence ideologies.”
Subsequently, in 2025, the Chongqing Public Security Bureau initiated a criminal investigation against Shen Boyang, accusing him of engaging in “activities to split the country.” Shen Boyang stated that he had never been to Chongqing and had no association with the city, but the Chinese Communist police insisted that the charge of “splitting the country” was not limited by regional boundaries.
After the exposure of the warrant, CCTV aired a seven-minute documentary accusing Shen Boyang of spreading “anti-China” sentiments.
In January of this year, Shen Boyang stated in an interview with The Times that the cross-border criminal investigations launched by the Chongqing Public Security were a deliberate message to try to create a chilling effect, “It is not important for me, but it is important for the people of Taiwan. They want to try to suppress our freedom of speech.”
Human Rights Watch criticized this action, stating that it is an attempt by the Chinese government to extend legal pressure to Taiwan through its “cross-border repression” operation.
Furthermore, the United States Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC) in its June report listed the Shen Boyang case as a typical example of the Chinese Communist Party’s legal war against Taiwan, revealing internal discussions within the CCP about using mechanisms like Interpol red notices for overseas arrests.
Shen Boyang becoming a focal point of Beijing’s targeting stems from his long-standing expertise in researching CCP information warfare and promoting civil defense initiatives.
Born in Taipei, the 44-year-old Shen Boyang graduated from the law department and law institute of National Taiwan University and earned a master’s degree in law from the University of Pennsylvania and a Ph.D. in Criminology and Law and Society from the University of California, Irvine in 2007. He returned to Taiwan in 2017, abandoning his teaching position in the United States to work at the Department of Criminology at National Taipei University, specializing in researching CCP united front work and threats to Taiwan.
Around 2018, Shen Boyang began systematic research into the increasing information attacks by the CCP against Taiwan. In 2019, he founded the “DoubleThink Lab” to quantify and analyze CCP’s information warfare as an objective phenomenon.
In 2020, he published an annual report stating that CCP’s cognitive warfare is mainly conducted through the “Five Lines of Attack” – the Ministry of State Security, the Central United Front Work Department, the Taiwan Affairs Office, the People’s Liberation Army, and Communist Youth League, with the most effective propaganda tools being “content farms” and “local collaborators.”
Shen Boyang has warned that “the most frightening aspect of misinformation is not someone telling you the conclusion, but letting you draw the same conclusion yourself.”
This research framework has become a standard for international think tanks discussing CCP’s cognitive warfare, and the “China Influence Index” developed by his team has evaluated and ranked over a hundred countries, referenced by research institutions and media in more than 80 countries globally. In 2023, Shen Boyang was elected as a board member of the World Movement for Democracy based in Washington, D.C.
In order to translate academic research into civilian defense capabilities, Shen Boyang, along with entrepreneur Cao Xingcheng, founded the “Black Bear Academy” advocating for universal defense, providing training in first aid, radio communications, and intelligence analysis.
In an interview with the Swiss NZZ in July, Shen Boyang expressed that “being Taiwanese is not easy,” emphasizing the need to build civil psychological resilience and crisis response capabilities to prevent people from prematurely succumbing to authoritarian pressure in times of crisis.
However, Shen Boyang’s political career has been accompanied by high controversy. In the 2025 Taiwan “Great Recall” movement, he was seen as a key leader, with critics from the opposing camp accusing him of fomenting social division. Although all 32 recalls were ultimately unsuccessful, Shen Boyang stated that he would take responsibility, but stressed that recall groups are citizen-led and should not be blamed for exercising their constitutional rights.
The legal war and public opinion suppression launched by Beijing against Shen Boyang reflects an accelerated strategic process by the Xi Jinping regime to achieve “unification” through non-military means.
While much international attention focuses on whether the CCP will launch military aggression, Shen Boyang, studying information warfare, warns of another potentially more dangerous outcome – Taiwan gradually conceding on key issues to Beijing in order to uphold the so-called “peace” politically and economically.
Drawing lessons from Hong Kong’s history, Shen Boyang highlights how the extradition bill in 2019 sparked a political crisis, leading to Beijing’s imposition of the Hong Kong National Security Law, further altering the city’s political and legal environment. In December 2025, Hong Kong media magnate Jimmy Lai was convicted of “incitement offenses” due to his anti-Beijing remarks, serving as a clear warning.
Shen Boyang envisions that if Taiwan were to develop a pro-Beijing government in the future and gradually make concessions in the same direction, the cross-border warrants and investigations issued by the CCP’s public security will present more threatening practical constraints.
Furthermore, Shen Boyang reveals that the CCP employs a dual strategy of “carrot and stick,” financing Taiwanese internet influencers to promote pro-Beijing viewpoints during their trips to mainland China, while also employing military exercises and legal warfare to suppress dissent.
Shen Boyang believes that the CCP’s actions over the past year, including cross-border legal warfare and surveillance intimidation, are due to the obstruction his strategies pose to their mainland strategies and the attempt to divert attention from China’s internal economic difficulties.
From the Hong Kong surveillance in 2024 to the Chongqing criminal investigation in 2025 to the changing dynamics in the 2026 Taipei mayoral election polls, these overlapping events happening over time continue to test Shen Boyang and the democratic resilience of Taiwanese society.