The Chinese Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has proposed using big data to identify uninsured individuals and mobilize them to participate in social insurance, aiming to achieve a basic old-age insurance coverage rate of over 95% during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.
Experts believe that as the scope for increasing coverage is limited, promoting the transition of residents from the old-age insurance for urban and rural residents to the old-age insurance for workers aims to supplement pension funds. However, the challenges of payment burdens and discontinuation risks remain, especially amidst financial constraints and pressures on employment and income.
On October 10th, the Chinese State Council Information Office held a press conference where Vice Minister of Human Resources and Social Security Li Zhong announced the number of participants in China’s basic old-age, unemployment, and work injury insurance. Li Zhong mentioned that the next steps would involve utilizing policy optimization and methods like “data search” to identify uninsured individuals and encourage their participation in the insurance system.
Li Zhong also highlighted that the policy would focus on encouraging flexible employees, migrant workers, and individuals in new forms of employment to join the workers’ old-age insurance. He mentioned that some individuals currently participating in the urban and rural residents’ old-age insurance would be encouraged to switch to the workers’ old-age insurance as much as possible. It would explore mechanisms where employers, platform companies, and workers collectively raise funds and share the burden of insurance.
Furthermore, the official plan includes expanding the trial of occupational injury insurance for individuals in new forms of employment, focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises, self-employed individuals with employees, and social groups to further broaden the coverage of unemployment insurance.
Concerning the authorities’ use of high-tech means for “searching for people to participate in insurance,” many netizens express concerns. Despite the annual adjustments in social insurance payment bases and standards, the burden of social insurance has exceeded the affordability of many families and individuals.
Some netizens commented, “The core issue is not about finding uninsured individuals but rather what to do if they cannot afford to pay after being found. The policy direction seems to be completely backwards.” Others questioned the necessity of using big data to locate uninsured individuals while suggesting prioritizing the application of big data for accurately countering unemployment and providing employment opportunities or even distributing unemployment benefits.
An analysis by Chinese capital expert Xu Zhen revealed that the latest move by the Chinese authorities exposes the increasing strain on pension funds. He mentioned that the authorities hope to transition flexible employees, migrant workers, and individuals in new forms of employment from the residents’ old-age insurance to the workers’ old-age insurance.
“Such a shift means that individuals who used to pay a few hundred yuan a year will now pay nearly ten thousand yuan a year. This mass conversion will significantly increase the pool of funds,” Xu Zhen explained. He believes that by increasing the payment burden on certain groups, the authorities are aiming to supplement the pension gaps by tapping into the people’s savings.
As the authorities push for expansion, the consecutive introduction of new retirement and payment regulations in recent years has raised concerns among workers about payment burdens and retirement security.
On September 13, 2024, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress and the State Council of China announced the implementation of a phased increase in the statutory retirement age. The retirement age for men was extended from 60 to 63, while female workers’ retirement age increased from 50 to 55, and female officials from 55 to 58.
Furthermore, starting from January 1, 2030, the minimum payment years required to receive basic old-age pensions will gradually increase from 15 to 20 years, with an additional six months per year.
In addition to adjustments in retirement ages and payment years, the mandatory payment regulations for social security have raised concerns among enterprises and workers regarding cost sharing.
On August 1, 2025, the Supreme People’s Court of China issued a judicial interpretation, stating that agreements to not pay social security are invalid. Employers failing to pay as required by law could result in contract termination by workers with economic compensation; underpaid social security must be settled along with potential late payment fees.
Behind these measures lies the pressure on social security fund revenues and expenditures.
Chinese issues expert Wang He analyzed that the authorities’ moves to delay retirements, extend payment years, require social security payments based on actual wages, and promote platform workers’ inclusion in social security mainly aim to increase the income of the pension insurance by expanding the contribution base.
However, Wang He believes that within the current coverage structure, the potential for adding new insured individuals is limited. Relying solely on expanding coverage may not fundamentally alleviate the financial pressures.
He points out that differences exist among residents on health insurance coverage, employment status, income levels, and payment capabilities; not everyone can afford the payment costs of the workers’ old-age insurance. For those with unstable incomes or lacking stable jobs, continuous payments towards the workers’ old-age insurance might create an additional burden.
With limited fiscal subsidy space, the payment pressure ultimately falls on individuals, depending on their employment and income stability.
Following three years of pandemic-induced lockdowns, China faces a dual challenge of declining population and economic recession. While policy missteps have sparked public discontent, regions are experiencing significant waves of disinvestment, especially among younger generations such as the “post-80s” and “post-90s.”
Xu Zhen indicated that the pressure on China’s pension fund finances is closely linked to demographic structure. With the deepening aging population, the number of pension recipients increases while the influx of new individuals decreases, restricting the growth potential of the payment groups in the future.
Simultaneously, the economic downturn leading to unemployment, wage cuts, and disruptions in social security payments could weaken the sources of pension fund revenues. Xu Zhen concluded, “Due to immense fiscal pressures at all levels of the Chinese government, instead of making sacrifices themselves, they are squeezing the benefits of the people.”