Los Angeles Mayoral Race Enters Tight Contest with Election Day Approaching
With just a few weeks left until the midterm election voting day on November 3, the Los Angeles mayoral race has become tightly contested. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is facing a strong challenge from City Councilwoman Nithya Raman, and both Democratic candidates are actively promoting their platforms as they hit the campaign trail on weekends.
As of Thursday, major prediction markets in the US are favoring Raman over Bass: on the Kalshi website, Raman has a 57% support rate compared to Bass’s 44%, showing a 13% lead; while on the Polymarket platform, Raman leads with 58% support against Bass’s 43%, a 15% difference.
Records show that in late September, a joint poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times revealed Raman leading with 39% support while Bass trailed at 28%. Following this, Raman has taken a sudden lead in prediction markets, reversing the trend where Bass held the upper hand since early May.
Drawing insights from past expert studies on presidential election outcomes, it is noted that the mid-October front-runner typically secures victory in the election.
Over sixty elected officials have endorsed Bass, including California Governor Newsom, former Vice President Harris, former House Speaker Pelosi, and California’s two US Senators, Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla. Additionally, more than thirty labor unions such as the Teamsters and Dockworkers Union, service employee unions, as well as numerous community organizations and business leaders have expressed their support for Bass.
Bass aims to bring more housing and job opportunities to Los Angeles, protect tenants, reduce homelessness, increase police presence to lower crime rates, support immigrants, and resist federal immigration enforcement.
During her initial campaign, Bass also pledged to reduce homelessness. Statistics from 2025 show that the city’s homeless population had declined for two consecutive years, by 17.5% since Bass took office; however, this year saw a slight increase of 3.4% compared to the previous year.
In contrast, Raman’s supporters, while passionate, might not hold as prominent positions. Organizations backing her like DSA-LA and “LA FORWARD” advocate for reducing police presence, emphasizing economic and environmental justice, addressing climate change, and establishing a justice system not reliant on mass incarceration. This vision may differ from the desires of many Chinese residents who prioritize cracking down on street crimes and maintaining community safety.
Starting from September 18, the Los Angeles Police Protective League (LAPPL) has launched aggressive TV and online ads criticizing Raman. The LAPPL Chairman, in the ads, emphasized Raman’s 75 votes against enforcing laws near schools, parks, and daycares. One ad included a clip of Raman stating, “I don’t think children are safer if there’s a tent 500 feet away from a school.”
Meanwhile, Bass’s campaign team identified criticisms against Raman in her campaign videos. This may have contributed to recent fluctuations in both candidates’ support levels.
The competition between the two candidates heated up after Raman deleted a segment of a video collaboration with an internet celebrity. In the video, Raman criticized Bass and LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell. When Bass appeared in the video, someone said, “Only you (Raman) can stop the fascist fraud”; and when McDonnell’s image was shown, a red cross was imposed over his face.
Although Raman’s team explained that the term “fascist fraud” referred to federal immigration enforcement agencies, Bass seized the opportunity to criticize Raman as “extremely irresponsible” and “not ready for political office” in interviews. McDonnell also expressed disappointment in Raman’s attitude, noting that 52 officers were injured during last year’s anti-immigration enforcement riots in Los Angeles.
Next Tuesday at 7 p.m., NBC Los Angeles and Telemundo 52 will host a mayoral debate where Bass and Raman will discuss significant issues such as homelessness, housing, and public safety.