The Russian government’s statements at the Valdai International Discussion Club are diverging from the reality on the battlefield. From Russia’s claimed “achievements” on the battlefield to its assertion of never attacking non-military targets, and the portrayal of Russia as a victim of European aggression, the narrative constructed by the Kremlin is being contradicted by battlefield data, Russia’s own actions, and its public threats.
On October 1, 2026, Russian President Putin claimed during the Valdai International Debate Club speech that Russian forces had only occupied 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in September, achieving 2.5 times the territorial gains previously claimed by the Russian side in recent months.
However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in the United States evaluated based on public battlefield evidence that Russian forces actually suffered a net loss of 80.81 square kilometers of territory in that same month. When considering areas where Russian forces have infiltrated but not fully controlled, the net loss increases to 175.18 square kilometers. The stark disparity between these two sets of data highlights the significant contradiction between Russian official battlefield propaganda and verifiable realities on the ground.
In reality, Putin is paying a heavy price for the invasion of Ukraine. September of this year has become the deadliest month for Russian military casualties, with the situation likely to further deteriorate.
According to the latest war report from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on October 3, the number of Russian military casualties on the Ukrainian battlefield has exceeded 1.53 million, far surpassing the combined casualties Russia or the Soviet Union suffered in all wars and armed conflicts since the end of World War II.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff stated on October 1 that in September, Russian military personnel losses reached 46,230, setting a record for the highest monthly casualties in 2026.
Despite the significant losses suffered by the Kremlin and diminishing returns in terms of territorial gains, with some areas resulting in net losses, Russia continues to insist on deploying its troops on the battlefield and continues to propagate progress made on the front lines.
Commander of the Ukrainian Third Army, Andrii Biletskyi, stated that on September 28 to 29, a successful operation codenamed “Vyvahl” deceived Russian forces in the Luhansk region of Ukraine, causing them to deploy reserve forces in the wrong direction.
This operation dealt a heavy blow to the Russian offensive and led to the recapture of a small amount of territory by Ukraine. Biletskyi further explained that, “The enemy firmly believed that the main attack direction was from Shandryholove to Zelena Dolyna, forcing Russian forces to counterattack in that direction, needlessly exhausting their reserve forces. Russian forces missed the real attack direction, while our main offensive was concentrated on taking Nove.”
As Russian forces launched futile counterattacks in the presumed false target area and depleted substantial resources, the main forces of the Ukrainian Third Army quietly assembled and directed their actual attack towards Nove. Nove served as a critical logistical and transportation hub for Russian forces in the region, and its capture or loss directly impacted the stability of the front line. Ukrainian forces exploited the gap left by Russian reserve forces being redeployed and successfully breached the outer defenses of Nove, reclaiming the area and surrounding outposts.
In this operation, Ukrainian forces employed innovative tactics, including the widespread use of remote-controlled explosive devices adapted from BTR-60 armored personnel carriers to destroy formidable Russian defensive fortifications. These wheeled armored vehicles, weighing over ten tons, were stripped of their internal passenger compartments, loaded with high explosives, and equipped with long-range remote control and image transmission systems. In the attack phase, these unmanned armored vehicles were guided to detonate near Russian defensive fortifications or firepower positions. The significant destructive power generated by these suicide-style unmanned vehicles combining traditional armored protection with large explosive devices proved tactically effective on the battlefield.
In addition to being exposed by actual battlefield events, the Kremlin’s lies have also been revealed by intelligence leaks from within the Russian military. During the Valdai forum on October 1, Putin claimed that Russian forces have always adhered to humanitarian norms and emphasized that they “never first target non-military objects unrelated to enemy military infrastructure.”
On September 24, 2026, Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal stated in a national television marathon interview that his office received a document indicating that Russia had devised a plan for a large-scale destruction of Ukraine’s energy, water, and heating infrastructure. The intelligence obtained from the Russian side mentioned various strategies that Russian terrorists would adopt this winter.
Shmyhal emphasized that the document’s wording was cold and precise, detailing the weapons quantity required to destroy each facility. “The types of weapons include ballistic missiles, jet-powered drones, and traditional drones. Everything is calculated, with strike formations listed for each facility. We know how Russia is preparing to act.” “Our partners, like us, are shocked by the ruthless nature of this document. The cold-blooded, terrorist calculation of how to destroy our country’s energy sector in the document is shocking.”
In fact, the first wave of Russian attacks has already occurred. Kiev Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko reported that on October 3, Russian forces assaulted the North Bridge across the Dnieper River in Kiev. Since October 1, Russian forces have attacked the South and North bridges in Kiev multiple times, severely disrupting civilian traffic and logistics on both banks of the Dnieper River, aiming to divide the city of Kiev in half.
On October 3, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued another warning, advising foreign citizens and diplomatic personnel to evacuate Kiev and explicitly stating that Russian forces would continue to launch large-scale, systematic long-range drone and missile strikes on Kiev and other cities in Ukraine.
The statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry indicates that Russian military intends to continue targeting Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure, especially civilian facilities in major cities. Russia seeks to create a political crisis this winter while weakening Ukraine’s existing battlefield capabilities.
As protecting critical infrastructure poses significant challenges, Ukraine is gradually moving away from the large, centralized heating and energy facilities of the Soviet era to smaller, decentralized, and more modern infrastructure to enhance the overall resilience of the energy system under sustained aerial bombardment.
Ukrainian civilians are facing the harshest winter in this war. This is not only due to the impending cold weather but also because Russia is systematically taking actions to inflict greater suffering on Ukrainian civilians.
Furthermore, Russian authorities depict Russia as a victim of European aggression, attempting to make the world believe that European leaders responding to Russian actions are the real aggressors. This is used as a justification for Russia to use “all means available” and to threaten Europe.
During the speech on October 1, it also included statements that Russia “has not threatened anyone” and “does not intend to attack anyone in 2029, 2030, or 2050,” but if faced with aggression, Russia will be forced to respond. And if Russia faces a direct attack, including on Kaliningrad, possibly in other regions, the issue of Russia using “all means available” will “inevitably come to the forefront immediately.” The reference to “all available means” naturally raises concerns about “nuclear weapons.”
However, in recent years, Kremlin officials have repeatedly threatened to attack European countries. On December 17, 2023, Putin stated that Finland would “encounter problems” and suggested that Finland’s joining NATO prompted Russia to establish the Leningrad Military District and deploy military units heavily in northwestern Russia.
On May 6, 2024, Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Medvedev threatened that Western intervention in Ukraine would lead to a “global disaster” and warned that Russia might strike Washington, Paris, and London.
On December 2, 2025, Putin hinted at nuclear threats, stating that if Europe engaged in war with Russia, the situation would “rapidly escalate,” after which Russia would have “no one to negotiate with.”
On June 23, 2026, Russian Defense Committee member Kolesnik urged that if the situation in the Kaliningrad region escalated, Russia should launch nuclear strikes on some European capitals.
This speech on October 1 is seen as part of the Kremlin’s push for cognitive warfare, aiming to divide Europe by convincing them that Russia is the victim of Western aggression, and that any actions by Russia against Europe are responses to forced circumstances, including the recent frequent limited kinetic attacks by the Kremlin on Europe, deliberately allowing drones to penetrate Moldova and NATO airspace, and various disruptive and espionage activities.
In reality, NATO has never directly acted against Russia. However, Russia has been testing to see if NATO will act. If NATO were to actually take action, then Russia might truly become the “victim.”