Which areas in the United States have the highest housing market risks? According to the 2026 first quarter housing market risk report released by real estate data company ATTOM, out of the top 50 counties with the highest risks in the country, Florida and California together account for 21 counties.
This list does not predict which areas will see a drop in housing prices. ATTOM analyzed 580 counties across the United States, comparing factors such as foreclosure rates, home equity, housing affordability, and unemployment rates to assess which areas would be most impacted in case of a downturn in the housing market.
The top 5 counties with the highest risk are Charlotte County in Florida, Butte County in California, Charles County in Maryland, Shasta County in California, and Cumberland County in New Jersey.
In terms of states, Florida has the most counties on the list with 12 in the top 50, followed by California with 9 counties, Illinois and New Jersey each have 5. These four states together make up 31 counties on the list.
The reasons for these areas being on the list vary. Some areas have high housing affordability burdens, while others have higher unemployment or foreclosure rates. There are also areas with a higher number of homes in serious negative equity, meaning homeowners owe at least 25% more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their homes.
Housing affordability reflects how challenging it is for the average working class to buy a home. ATTOM calculates the affordability by comparing local median home prices with local average wages, adding together mortgage principal and interest, property taxes, and home insurance to see how much of a yearly income is required to cover these expenses.
According to this calculation, King County where Brooklyn is located in New York City is at a high rate of 108.6%. This means that purchasing a median-priced home with the local average wage would result in major housing expenses exceeding the average annual income.
California also has several counties with heavy housing affordability burdens. Santa Cruz County is at 97.1%, Marin County at 91.1%, San Luis Obispo County at 89.7%, and Orange County at 88.1%.
In comparison, the median home price for the first quarter of 2026 in the United States is $360,000, with the major housing expenses required to purchase a median-priced home averaging 30.3% of an average worker’s annual income.
Texas stands out with the issue of foreclosures, where homeowners default on mortgages and lenders initiate proceedings to repossess homes. Liberty County in northeast Houston has the highest foreclosure rate in the country, with 1 out of every 55 homes in foreclosure. Kaufman County east of Dallas has 1 in every 361 homes in foreclosure, compared to the national average of 1 in every 1,211 homes.
However, high home prices do not necessarily equate to high risks. ATTOM takes into account employment, foreclosures, home equity, and housing affordability. Therefore, even in an expensive housing market, if the unemployment rate is low, foreclosures are minimal, and homeowners have higher home equity, the overall ability to withstand a downturn in the housing market may still be strong.
In the markets with the lowest risks, Tennessee is relatively prominent. Out of the top 50 counties in the country with the lowest risks, 9 are located in Tennessee.