As we enter the autumn of 2026, it’s time to analyze the market trends of the recent period. In the autumn housing market of 2026, six major phenomena can be summarized, along with the housing markets in three major Chinese communities and the key factors in selling homes.
The most crucial axis is not whether house prices will rise or fall, but rather: the market power is shifting from sellers to buyers. Unfortunately, with the return of high mortgage rates hovering around 7%, many buyers are left unable to take advantage of seller discounts, despite having more bargaining power. In other words, “there are more buyers with bargaining power, but fewer buyers with the ability to purchase houses.”
Here are the six major trends in this year’s autumn housing market:
According to statistics from the National Association of Realtors, in August, the annualized sales of existing homes in the United States were only 3.98 million, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous month and 1.2% from the previous year; the inventory for sale increased to 1.62 million homes, roughly equivalent to a 4.9-month supply.
Data from Redfin even shows that in August, there were about 58% more sellers than buyers in the market, marking the largest supply-demand gap since their records began. By mid-September, pending sales had dropped to their lowest point in almost three years.
In simple terms, there are more houses available, fewer buyers, increased bargaining power for buyers, yet overall sales have not increased as a result. This situation differs from the housing market crash of 2008 caused by massive forced sales of properties; currently, it resembles demand being frozen due to high interest rates.
Earlier this year, mortgage rates had dropped to around 6%, but they began rising rapidly in September. Potential buyers who missed the opportunity at the beginning of the year may now be disappointed for not acting sooner.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 7.03% (as of September 21), surpassing 7% for the first time since January 2025.
According to Redfin’s statistics, when mortgage rates were 6.71%, the typical buyer’s monthly payment had already reached $2,641, hitting a fourteen-month high.
Thus, an incredibly counterintuitive situation has emerged: while it may be easier to negotiate when buying a house compared to last year, the affordability of monthly payments has actually become more difficult. This is why sellers offering discounts may not necessarily lead to increased transactions.
For instance, even if a $450,000 house owner is willing to reduce the price by $20,000, if the mortgage rate goes from 6% to over 7%, the buyer’s monthly advantage may quickly be offset by interest payments. Therefore, what truly determines the market in this autumn might not be house prices, but the Monthly Payment.
Official figures still show that in August, the median sale price of existing homes was approximately $429,100, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%; the FHFA House Price Index for July also showed a 2.6% annual increase.
Just looking at these numbers might lead one to believe that “American house prices haven’t fallen at all.” However, real-time market signals tell a different story entirely. In September, over 20% of sellers had reduced their listing prices; Redfin also observed that nearly 3/5 of homes ended up selling for less than the original listing price. Moreover, many of the discounts offered by sellers do not directly reflect in the list price.
For example: with a listing price of $500,000, the final sale price might still be $490,000. On the surface, this seems like only a 2% drop. However, the seller might also provide additional incentives such as covering closing costs of $10,000, $8,000 in repair costs, or even interest rate subsidies. This further reduces the actual acquisition cost for the buyer. Therefore, this autumn, it’s crucial to differentiate between the list price and the actual transaction cost. In other words, the official house price index may currently underestimate the true price pressures.
In August, 44.7% of buyers received discounts from sellers, higher than the same period last year at 42.6%, and the highest since Redfin began tracking this data in 2020. What’s even more striking is that approximately 15% of buyers were able to negotiate a price reduction, in addition to discounts from sellers. In Sun Belt markets like Atlanta and Nashville, around 70% of buyers received seller concessions.
This indicates a shift in the market from buyers saying, “I’ll pay $50,000 more without a home inspection” in 2021-2022 to buyers saying in 2026, “Lower the price, fix the roof, cover closing costs, and then I’ll buy.” This is the most direct evidence of the transfer of market power.
Unexpectedly, in August, new home sales increased by 6.4% monthly, reaching an annualized rate of 684,000 homes, hitting an eight-month high; however, the median sales price of new homes saw a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% to $393,700.
This doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a sudden full recovery in new home demand, but rather developers are actively reducing prices, offering mortgage rate subsidies, and other incentives to attract buyers. Currently, the biggest weapon for large developers is not the houses themselves but their mortgage loan business. For instance, when market rates are at 7%, developers might offer promotional mortgage rates of 4.99% or 5.5%. However, existing homeowners typically can’t match this.
Thus, buyers might face a scenario where a second-hand house at $420,000 with a 7% interest rate competes with a new house at $430,000, benefiting from developer incentives and a promotional rate of 5.5%. After calculating the monthly payments, the new house might actually be more affordable.
Therefore, this autumn sees a showdown between developers and existing homeowners. This competition is particularly crucial for major developers like D.R. Horton, Lennar, Pulte, and Taylor Morrison. This is why Berkshire Hathaway’s investment company made substantial investments in construction firms.
It’s no longer just about the average situation across the U.S. Some areas are experiencing noticeable increases in inventory, price adjustments, and seller concessions. However, in the Northeast and certain coastal cities with limited supply, house prices remain relatively strong.
Cities in the Sun Belt such as Austin, Phoenix, Dallas, Nashville, and certain cities in Florida are facing more supply and price reductions. Yet in the Middle Atlantic region, the FHFA reported a 6.3% annual increase in house prices in July, while in the Mountain region, including states like Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Nevada, house prices only saw a slight 0.6% annual increase.
Therefore, it’s entirely possible to have scenarios where areas near New York have “very few houses available,” while in Austin, there are “plenty of houses to choose from.” Though extreme, these are the realities of two different housing markets in the U.S.
After looking at the overall U.S. situation, let’s narrow the focus to Chinese communities in the U.S., which holds more significance compared to the national average: there is no single trend of “Chinese neighborhoods all experiencing declines” or “Chinese communities showing exceptional resilience”; instead, there’s a clear divergence.
Currently, the markets can be roughly divided into three categories: parts of the San Francisco Bay Area still remain tight, Southern California is finding a balance between buying and selling, and New York has entered a bargaining market.
Starting with the Bay Area in Northern California, the median listing price in San Francisco for September was around $1.095 million, with a 6.4% annual increase; the median sales price was even higher at about $1.488 million, with inventory decreasing by around 19.5%, and the days on the market significantly shortened. This indicates that certain scarce properties in downtown San Francisco remain quite robust.
However, in the South Bay and East Bay regions, where a significant number of Chinese and Asian residents reside, the situation is different. In Fremont, the median listing price for September was $1.29 million, with a 7% annual decrease, and the median sales price around $1.335 million, marking an 8.6% annual decrease, while inventory increased by 12.5%. Despite this, houses are only spending an average of 31 days on the market, suggesting that it is still primarily a seller’s market. In other words, prices are adjusting, but good houses are still sellable.
A similar situation can be observed in San Jose at the heart of Silicon Valley: with a 13.5% annual increase in inventory, the median days on the market is only 36 days, and the sales price saw a decrease of less than 1% from the previous year. This is a classic autumn phenomenon: more inventory is available, but the demand in core tech employment areas has not disappeared.
In Southern California, San Gabriel in September saw a median listing price of around $1.095 million, almost unchanged from last year, with inventory increasing by approximately 6.7%, yet the days on the market decreased to 47 days; Realtors still classify San Gabriel as a seller’s market.
Monterey Park already shows signs of loosening market conditions. With an inventory increase of about 34% over a year, average sales are about 2% lower than the listing price, placing the market in balance. In other words, buyers no longer need to rush to purchase houses as they did in previous years.
In Arcadia, the median listing price for September was around $1.598 million, with a 13.1% annual decrease; houses spent an average of 54 days on the market, with areas like 91007 experiencing more significant adjustments in listing prices. This aligns with the characteristics of the higher-priced market this year: it’s not that the houses lack value, but rather the sellers are adjusting their price expectations to meet market demands.
Thus, the entire San Gabriel Valley region this autumn cannot be simply described as “Chinese neighborhoods being robust.” A more accurate statement would be: the market for owner-occupied homes around the million-dollar range is still strong, but the sensitivity to price changes in luxury homes and higher total value properties has significantly increased.
Moving on to Flushing in New York, the situation is different. With a median listing price of about $669,000 for September, a 3.5% annual increase, but an actual sales price of around $636,000, a 2.2% annual decrease, and an average days on the market of approximately 75 days. Therefore, Realtors currently categorize Flushing as a buyer’s market.
In Flushing, what we see is this: while the seller’s listing price hasn’t significantly decreased, the actual sales price is starting to loosen. This echoes what we discussed earlier: the listing price does not always match the actual price. While the listed price may seem high, buyers are beginning to request discounts, repairs, and other concessions during the actual sale.
In Southern Brooklyn, Dyker Heights stands out. In September, the median listing price was about $1.224 million, with the median sales price around $1.1 million; houses spent an average of just 50 days on the market, around a 41% reduction from a year ago, with available homes being approximately 5% fewer than last year.
Realtors still classify it as a seller’s market. The average sales price is about 96% of the listing price. This indicates that high-quality, low-density residential properties in Southern Brooklyn have not lost their appeal to buyers.
Lastly, beyond specific regional housing markets, there is a significant trend in this autumn housing market: the demand for “move-in ready” homes is soaring, while older, “fixer-upper” homes are less sought after.
Due to inflation and labor shortages, construction wages, plumbing, and electrical contracting, and building material costs across the U.S. are all at historical highs. This has led to buyers willing to pay a premium for homes in excellent condition that already have updated plumbing, electricity, and kitchen/bathroom fixtures, as they seek to avoid the hefty renovation budgets and six-month construction periods that often come with purchasing a fixer-upper property.
In contrast, the market days for older, outdated homes with traditional layouts have notably lengthened, with the most significant price corrections seen in this segment.
After analyzing data from over 2 million home listings in March, Zillow found that houses advertised as “Turnkey” with no need for renovations sold at an average price 2.9% higher than similar properties; in contrast, homes labeled as “Fixer-Upper” and requiring renovations sold at a lower price, about 14% below expectations.
Why is there such a difference? With housing affordability already stretched thin, buyers are increasingly reluctant to purchase a home only to face another costly project and a months-long construction phase. Additionally, buyers now hold more significant negotiation leverage.