Several American lawmakers are calling for restrictions on prediction platforms that allow betting on wildfires, citing concerns that such trends could increase the risk of arson.
This week, Democratic senators from six states sent a letter to the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), urging him to curb this practice and requesting a response by August 14. The CFTC is responsible for overseeing prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
Polymarket is the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform, allowing users to place bets and trade on various real-life events.
The senators involved in this initiative include Jeff Merkley from Oregon, Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla from California, and Catherine Cortez Masto from Nevada.
“In light of the record-breaking wildfire season the United States is facing again this year, the CFTC cannot allow these prediction markets to offer unchecked betting on wildfires,” they pointed out, highlighting the risks associated with such bets, as individuals might resort to arson to ensure a successful wager.
According to The Guardian, at the beginning of 2025, wildfires ravaged Palisades and Eaton in Los Angeles. The prediction website Polymarket allowed users to place bets on various scenarios related to the wildfires, such as when the fires would be contained, whether they would spread to certain communities by specific dates, and the extent of the affected area.
Historian Jamie L. Pietruska from Rutgers University stated that the total bets placed surrounding the Los Angeles wildfires exceeded $1.2 million.
Pietruska has been monitoring these prediction websites. This summer, a website called Wyldfyre claimed to be the “first market dedicated to predicting California wildfires” and began offering trades about the “next moves of wildfires.” (Wyldfyre website is no longer accessible.)
Ann Skeet, the director of the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University, expressed concerns that betting on the spread of wildfires could incentivize individuals to commit arson.
“Some individuals may place bets and then be incentivized to actually set fires,” she said. “There is a real issue of incentivizing people to do (arson).”
While she welcomed the Senate’s action, Pietruska noted that it came a year and a half after the Palisades wildfire.
She mentioned, “Betting on weather is not a new phenomenon. People around the world have informally bet on temperature and rainfall for centuries,” but she expressed worries about the “speed and scale” of operations of platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and similar ones.
Both Polymarket and the CFTC did not respond to requests for comment from The Guardian.
In an April 23 report, The Guardian highlighted that French authorities were investigating a case involving the manipulation of meteorological station data. Data from the meteorological station at Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport was used for betting on Polymarket.
Sometimes, the total amount wagered on these bets exceeded $500,000 (£371,000). Police found that three different accounts made bets on April 15 about the Paris temperature reaching 19°C, resulting in profits exceeding $280,000. However, the temperature unexpectedly rose by 5°C that night.
One of the bets was placed before the sudden temperature rise, resulting in a profit of $21,000. This user also placed bets on the weather forecasts for Seoul and Toronto.
On the Polymarket Discord channel, some anonymous gamblers shared an AI image showing a man using a hairdryer on a weather station next to an airport runway.
“What did you do to the Paris airport temperature sensor yesterday? Did you use a hairdryer or a lighter?” one gambler asked another.
The meteorological station informed the Financial Times that they found physical traces on one of their instruments and an analysis of the sensor data indicating abnormal readings, prompting them to alert the authorities.
Polymarket has discontinued the data from the Charles de Gaulle Airport sensor and switched to the Le Bourget Airport sensor but has not canceled any contracts or refunded the wagers.