In the United States, a significant shift in supply and demand is evident in the housing market: there is an increasing number of listings, but buyers are not increasing at the same pace, resulting in a drastic surplus of sellers over buyers. At the same time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has climbed back up to 7%, further adding to the cost of buying a home.
According to the latest data from the real estate website Redfin, in August 2026, there were an estimated 1.535 million home sellers across the country, a 3.9% increase from July, marking the largest single-month increase on record. On the other hand, there were approximately 972,000 buyers, only a 0.1% increase from July. As a result, the surplus of sellers over buyers stood at 57.9%, reaching the highest level since Redfin began tracking in 2013. This shift in supply and demand is pushing the US housing market towards a “buyer’s market.”
However, for Chinese families, it is important to note that this is not a market-wide cooling trend across the US. Regions familiar to Chinese communities such as New York, New Jersey, San Francisco, and Texas are showing three different market trends.
Data released by Freddie Mac on September 24th indicated that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US rose to 7.03%, up from 6.95% a week ago and significantly higher than 6.30% a year ago.
Higher interest rates mean higher monthly principal and interest payments for the same house. For first-time homebuyers, households in need of large loans, and homeowners looking to upgrade but reluctant to give up their existing low-rate mortgages, a 7% interest rate will raise the barrier to entry into the market.
Redfin’s data further reflects this pressure. In August, new listings across the US increased by 2.6% compared to July, reaching the highest level since 2022; meanwhile, total housing inventory in the market hit the highest level since 2020. However, transaction volumes have remained largely stagnant. About three-fifths of homes sold in August were priced below the listing price.
If you live in the New York metropolitan area, you may find something peculiar: while the US is seen as a buyer’s market, the prices of the houses you are viewing still appear strong. Though buyers hold a more advantageous position in the overall US market, some suburbs in New York have not followed suit.
According to Redfin’s August data, out of the top 50 metropolitan areas in the US, only 5 are considered seller’s markets, including the suburbs of New York familiar to Chinese families. Nassau County on Long Island ranks among the strongest seller’s markets nationwide. The number of sellers outweighs buyers by 28% in the area; Newark in New Jersey, another market, sees sellers exceeding buyers by 21%. Additionally, Montgomery County in Pennsylvania, Milwaukee in Wisconsin, and San Francisco in California also fall into the seller’s market category.
Redfin’s analysis attributes this to a large extent to land and new home supply. The New York metropolitan area is close to major employment centers, but residential construction is constrained by land and development conditions, resulting in slower increases in inventory compared to some southern cities. The price reflects the supply and demand disparities.
In August, house prices in Nassau County rose by 8.1% annually, New York City by 7.1%, and Newark by 5.8%. Therefore, for Chinese families in New York, the notion that “the US is now a buyer’s market” cannot be directly translated into “significant price cuts” in New York.
Another market of note is the San Francisco Bay Area, familiar to many Chinese families. In August, San Francisco was classified as a seller’s market by Redfin, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 12%. This marks the second time in four years that San Francisco has fallen into the seller’s market category.
The pricing trends are particularly noteworthy. Redfin data shows that in August, house prices in San Francisco rose by 12% annually, the highest increase among the top 50 metropolitan areas. San Jose also saw a 3% increase in house prices.
Redfin suggests that the tech and AI industries in San Francisco are driving wealth accumulation and increasing housing demand. However, the Bay Area is not uniform in its growth. In August, new listings in San Jose surged by 25.5% annually, with active listings increasing by 17.7%, indicating a significant rise in supply.
For Chinese families planning to purchase property in the Bay Area, it is crucial to look beyond the general “Bay Area housing market” and consider specific cities, communities, housing types, and individual listings.
While New York and San Francisco continue to exhibit strong demand for home purchases, markets in Texas and Florida tell a different story.
In August, the seller-to-buyer ratio was 138% in Miami, Florida, and 131% in Houston, Texas. Additionally, Nashville in Tennessee, Orlando, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas all had seller-to-buyer ratios exceeding double. Houston, Orlando, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Nashville set records in the gaps between sellers and buyers. Among the top 50 metropolitan areas surveyed by Redfin, 36 are buyer’s markets, and the top 10 buyer’s markets all fall within the Sun Belt region.
One common feature of these regions is the relatively active residential construction in recent years. While there is a continuous influx of new homes into the market, when mortgage rates are high and buyer demand weakens, more inventory leads to fierce competition among sellers.
Some markets in Texas are also beginning to feel the pressure on prices. In August, Austin saw median prices drop by 6.3% annually, and Fort Worth by 2.6%. The number of homes sold in Houston also plummeted by 10.4% annually, marking the largest decline among the top 50 metropolitan areas.
In this market environment, buyers have the opportunity to view more properties, compare different communities, and negotiate on factors like price, repairs, and closing costs.
Despite having 57.9% more sellers than buyers, house prices have not experienced a comprehensive decline as a result. In August, home prices across the US increased by 3.7% annually compared to a year ago, albeit at a slower monthly pace.
The US housing market in 2026 is not easily summarized as either prices rising or falling. The 7% mortgage rate restricts some buying demand, while the increased inventory provides buyers with more choices.
From New York and New Jersey to the San Francisco Bay Area, and then to Texas and Florida, different market trends are emerging in terms of supply and demand. For Chinese families, the same house purchase can lead to varying negotiation opportunities depending on the city, housing supply, and local demand.