In the United States, airfare prices have been steadily increasing this year, and even with the drop in oil prices, passengers may not see a quick decline in ticket prices.
According to a report by the Associated Press on September 28, the average domestic airfare in the United States has risen from $405 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $428 in the first quarter of this year, and further increased to $436 in the second quarter. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that in August, airfare prices were 23% higher compared to the same period last year.
At the same time, aviation fuel prices have fluctuated significantly this year, reaching $4.88 per gallon in early April, dropping to $2.70 per gallon by June, but ticket prices have not decreased significantly in response. On September 17, aviation fuel prices rose again to $4.53 per gallon.
One reason for this is that airline ticket prices and flights are not necessarily adjusted daily according to oil prices.
Airlines typically plan flights several months in advance, deciding how many planes and seats to allocate, and many tickets have already been sold. When fuel prices suddenly rise, airlines cannot charge passengers who have already purchased tickets the difference; and when fuel prices fall, ticket prices do not immediately decrease.
Mike Leskinen, the Chief Financial Officer of United Airlines, stated that when fuel prices rose again recently, the company had already sold about 35% of its tickets for the fourth quarter.
The increase in fuel prices directly impacts the costs of airlines. Devon May, the Chief Financial Officer of American Airlines, mentioned that for every one-cent increase in aviation fuel per gallon, the company’s quarterly fuel costs increase by about $10 million. The recent round of price hikes is expected to increase the company’s fourth-quarter fuel expenses by approximately $1 billion.
Airlines have begun to reduce some flights. American Airlines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines have all indicated that they are further reducing capacity due to the rise in fuel costs, with the routes with lower profitability being the first to be affected. United Airlines has even canceled some flights scheduled for December.
Airfares for the peak season at the end of the year have significantly increased. Data from the travel booking platform Hopper shows that the average round-trip airfare for domestic Thanksgiving flights in the United States is around $402, a 31% increase from last year; for Christmas flights, the average is about $452, up by 23%, with holiday flight prices reaching their highest level in a decade.
Even if fuel prices drop again in the future, ticket prices may not immediately follow suit. Stephen Treanor, a finance professor at California State University’s Chico campus who researches airline fuel risks, explained that for ticket prices to continue to fall, fuel prices not only need to decrease but also remain at lower levels for a period of time.