Recently, the price of thermal coal in mainland China has been continuously rising and is approaching nearly 1,000 yuan per ton. The increase in the price of thermal coal has directly led to an increase in costs for downstream enterprises, with industry insiders stating that breaking the thousand-yuan mark for thermal coal prices is not difficult.
Since September, the price of thermal coal in mainland China has been steadily rising, showing an overall fluctuating upward trend. According to data from the data service provider Wind, as of September 23, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 987 yuan per ton, up by 85 yuan per ton from the beginning of the month. This type of thermal coal had reached 1,002 yuan per ton on September 9 and 10, compared to the price of 682 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year, a cumulative increase of nearly 47%.
Industry insiders believe that the recent increase in thermal coal prices is mainly due to a decrease in market supply caused by continued low production levels. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, coal production from January to August decreased by a cumulative total of 100 million tons, with production in July and August at its lowest level in nearly five years.
Citing an analysis from Zhen De Futures analyst Zeng Xiang, “Huaxia Times” on September 26 reported that with production levels remaining low, the earlier mitigation through consuming social inventories has diminished. As social inventories decrease, the supply reduction gradually reflects in the prices.
Inventory data also shows that the major ports around the Bohai Sea have seen their inventories drop from around 28 million tons at the end of July to around 24 million tons currently.
Ren Huiyun, a coal analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, stated that the inadequate supplement of imported coal has also contributed to the strengthening of coal prices.
Customs data shows that in August, China imported 42.09 million tons of coal, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, a significant decline compared to the 20.3% growth in July.
The rise in thermal coal prices has directly impacted downstream enterprises. Zeng Xiang stated, “The increase in coal prices mainly raises costs for downstream players, who are currently facing resistance to the high prices, resulting in slowed procurement as they await the release of subsequent production capacity.”
“Huaxia Times” reported that in the first half of 2026, the thermal power industry as a whole is under pressure, mainly due to the downward trend in electricity prices, with rising coal prices being a significant factor affecting industry profits.
Financial data shows that in the first half of the year, major thermal power companies saw declines in profitability. Huadian International’s net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 28.89% year-on-year; both revenue and net profit for China Huadian International weakened, with net profit falling by 20.47%; and China National Nuclear Power saw a decrease of 18.25% in net profit.
Ren Huiyun believes, “Currently, downstream users in coastal areas have limited acceptance of the high-priced coal market, with a cautious procurement attitude.”
“Huaxia Times” stated that based on high-frequency data in September, the likelihood of a continued decline in the import volume of thermal coal and a weakening replenishment effect on coastal markets remains high. Zeng Xiang believes that it is not difficult for the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal to once again exceed the thousand-yuan mark.