Amid ongoing purges at the top ranks of the Chinese military, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continues to expand its aerial operations around the Taiwan Strait and conduct blockade exercises. According to reports, only Xi Jinping and Zhang Shengmin remain unaffected among the original seven members of the Central Military Commission. Mainland Chinese scholars believe that the CCP’s internal command system turmoil and military pressure on Taiwan are happening simultaneously, increasing the risk of miscalculation and conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
The Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense reports that almost every day, the CCP conducts military activities around Taiwan, with increasingly aggressive and unpredictable tactics. The Chinese military is studying issues such as drone swarms, long-range strikes, ammunition consumption, maritime blockades, and coordination with allied forces, while trying to isolate Taiwan early in a conflict, cut off external supplies, and weaken Taiwan’s defense systems.
An insider close to the Chinese military stated that the CCP’s defense industry is developing a machine system to clear underwater mines in the waters near Taiwan during wartime. He said, “This year’s budget allocation also focuses on developing underwater mine-clearing devices. Many countries are researching this, and it seems like Japan is also conducting research. The United States is the most advanced in this technology, and it’s clear where the CCP’s technology comes from.”
Military scholar Chen Chao (pseudonym) mentioned that recent purges within the CCP continue to exceed normal ranges, indicating Xi Jinping’s lack of trust in the loyalty of the top military leadership. For Taiwan, this doesn’t mean that military pressure will decrease. He said, “So many members of the Central Military Commission have had problems. Since the 20th Congress, there have been very few members left in the military commission. The likelihood of a full-scale war is low, but harassment won’t stop. If things escalate accidentally, it’s not impossible for the situation to escalate into a conflict.”
Chen also noted that, to his knowledge, Zhang Yuxia was once authorized to be responsible for simulating combat operations against Taiwan, and now it’s difficult to find a replacement, posing one of the challenges for CCP’s tactics against Taiwan. He said, “With only two members left in the Central Military Commission, the Rocket Forces and equipment system’s top leadership is also in single digits. There are few naval and air force commanders within our visible range. Currently, the pressure on Taiwan is focused on military intimidation, and without it, they can’t come up with a better solution.”
Last October, nine senior officers, including He Weidong, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), were expelled from the party and discharged from the military. In January of this year, Zhang Yuxia, Vice Chairman of the CMC, and Liu Zhenli, Chief Staff Officer of the CMC Joint Staff Department were announced to be under investigation. According to Reuters, nearly all top commanders in the Chinese military have been replaced in recent years, with reports suggesting that Lin Xiangyang, commander of the Eastern Theater Command responsible for Taiwan operations, was also targeted for discipline.
Chen further believes that prior to the 21st Party Congress of the CCP, various military branches are experiencing a rare period of power vacuum, lacking leaders who can coordinate and plan major military operations. He said, “This is the first time since Deng Xiaoping that the military has faced a situation of having a command system in name only from top to bottom.”
Taiwan’s National Security Bureau Director Tsai Ming-yen stated in July that the period from July to September every year witnesses frequent CCP military exercises, with Taiwan observing increased activities of the Chinese navy and other maritime forces around Taiwan. In June this year, Taiwan recorded a 83% increase in the presence of 55 Chinese coast guard and surveying ships near Taiwan compared to May, marking a 120% rise from the same period last year. These figures do not include ships near Taiwan-controlled islands such as Kinmen and Matsu.
Chinese military researcher Yu Lequn (pseudonym) stated that the CCP is integrating military exercises, combat readiness patrols, and maritime law enforcement to keep its actions towards Taiwan in a gray zone between peace and war. He believes this is a trend-based deployment and does not signify an immediate military action by the CCP, nor can it be considered an early deployment for an attack on Taiwan.
He said, “If they (the CCP) were to take military action against Taiwan, they would need to mobilize for war, coordinate logistics support, possess powerful offensive weapons, and have a robust command system. The so-called ‘National Defense Mobilization Law’ that comes into effect on October 1st is a law for raising funds, reflecting the regime’s strength, but I believe it’s a last resort.”
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense report suggests that the CCP currently does not have all the capabilities required for a full-scale amphibious landing, but Beijing could choose to exert pressure on Taiwan through maritime isolation, joint blockade, missile strikes, cyberattacks, and psychological warfare.
Interviewed scholars believe that implementing blockades in stages requires fewer troops than a full-scale landing and could be more easily disguised as military exercises or law enforcement. If Taiwan doesn’t respond, the CCP can continue expanding its control range; should Taiwan take a military response, Beijing could blame Taiwan for provoking conflict.
On September 2, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te announced that Taiwan’s defense budget for the next fiscal year will exceed NT$1 trillion for the first time, focusing on developing unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and the local defense industry. Yu Lequn also warned that the CCP’s increasing encirclement actions are compressing Taiwan’s warning time. When internal political loyalty within the military overrides professional judgment, actions such as the so-called combat readiness patrols, maritime interdictions, or live-fire exercises by the CCP could escalate into conflict without transparent communication, and Taiwan should remain vigilant against this.