The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) stated on Wednesday, September 23, that despite the challenges of high energy prices, the global economy showed greater resilience than expected in the first half of 2026. OECD has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 from 2.8% to 2.9%, attributing the better-than-expected performance in handling the energy impact from the Iran conflict.
However, global economic growth in 2026 remains noticeably lower than the 3.4% in 2025. In its economic outlook report released on Wednesday, OECD warned that persistent inflation, rising bond yields, and prolonged conflicts continue to cast a shadow over economic prospects. OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecast for 2027 from 3.1% to 3.0%.
According to OECD, the recent impact on energy prices in September is expected to prolong higher levels of inflation. The overall inflation rate for the G20 is projected to rise to 4.1% in 2026, then fall to 3.6% in 2027. Core inflation rates in advanced economies are expected to slow down from 2.7% in 2026 to 2.5% in 2027.
In the economic outlook report on Wednesday, OECD predicts that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.2% in 2026, higher than the 2.1% in 2025; the Eurozone’s economic growth is forecasted to be 1% in 2026, lower than 1.3% in 2025; Japan’s economic growth in 2026 is expected to be 0.8%, down from 1.2% in 2025; China’s economic growth in 2026 is projected to be 4.5%, lower than the 5% in 2025. The overall economic growth for the G20 in 2026 is expected to be 3.1%, lower than 3.3% in 2025.
Since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February, energy prices have surged significantly, but multiple factors have mitigated this impact. OECD points out that abundant oil inventories, increased oil supply outside the Persian Gulf region, and government support measures have to some extent restrained the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, investments related to artificial intelligence (AI) continue to be strong, providing support for production, trade, and economic growth.
OECD suggests that governments of all countries should focus on achieving energy supply diversification in the medium and long term, improving energy efficiency, and ensuring that social safety nets are both effective and efficient to provide timely support to vulnerable households.