Three weeks away from the US presidential election day, the final sprint in the battle between former President Trump (Donald Trump) and current Vice President Kamala Harris has begun. Various polls and speculations make it hard to predict the outcome. The complexity of the race has made it difficult to foresee the results of the 2024 election.
As the election day nears and some states have already started early voting, the latest results from different polls indicate various differences and trends. Let’s take a look at some of the latest polls and election analysis reports.
A recent poll released by renowned polling agency Gallup on October 10 shows a significant image distinction between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump among voters. Harris is regarded as more dignified and likable, while Trump is perceived as more powerful, forceful, and action-oriented.
According to the latest Gallup poll, Harris leads Trump by 13 percentage points on the issue of “noble moral qualities,” with 53% to 40%. On the issue of “honesty and trustworthiness,” Harris leads Trump by 8 points, with 49% to 41%.
Harris is also more likable among voters compared to Trump, with a huge 60% favorability rating, leading Trump by 22 percentage points (38%).
In terms of “caring for the needs of the people” and “being a president to be proud of,” Harris leads Trump by 5 percentage points on each, with 54% to 49% and 50% to 45%, respectively.
Both candidates are tied at 51% in “effective government management.”
Trump’s favorability rating remains the same as in 2020. However, his honesty and trustworthiness rating is higher now compared to 2016, surpassing his opponent Hillary Clinton’s score. Despite an increase in Trump’s credibility score to 41% in 2020, he still lagged behind Joe Biden by 11 percentage points.
Furthermore, in terms of support for their campaigns, Trump is trailing Harris by 10 percentage points. 56% of registered voters rate Harris as doing very well or fairly well, while 46% of registered voters give high ratings to Trump.
The Gallup poll indicates that Trump leads Harris by 11 percentage points in being a “strong and decisive leader.” In terms of “ability to get things done,” Trump surpasses Harris by 12 percentage points with 61% support.
On the issue of “demonstrating good judgment in a crisis” and “having foresight for the country’s future,” Trump exceeds Harris by 1 and 3 percentage points, respectively.
People’s opinions of Trump on similar issues have shown varying degrees of improvement compared to Gallup’s surveys in 2020 and 2016. Voters now have more confidence in Trump’s ability to demonstrate good judgment in a crisis, showing a 6-point increase from 4 years ago. They also believe more now that Trump is “a strong and decisive leader,” with a 3-point increase compared to 4 years ago and 2 points from 8 years ago.
Trump’s score on “effective government management” has increased by 2 percentage points compared to 4 years ago and by 10 points compared to 8 years ago. In terms of “caring for the needs of the people,” Trump has gained 2 points compared to 4 years ago and 9 points compared to 8 years ago.
In terms of whether the presidential candidates possess the “personal qualities and leadership traits a president should have,” Gallup poll shows that Harris leads Trump by 6 percentage points. While Trump performs better in the aspect of being a “strong and decisive leader,” voters may consider Harris’ moral qualities and likability more important.
In addition, when it comes to the “most important issues to you,” 49% of Americans agree with Trump’s views while 47% agree with Harris’ views.
Voters believe that neither of the candidates will veer to the extremes in politics, despite Trump often criticizing Harris as too left-leaning, and Harris linking Trump to far-right organizations. According to Gallup statistics, 48% of voters perceive Trump’s political views as “too conservative,” while 51% view Harris as “too liberal.” 40% of voters consider their political viewpoints as “appropriate.”
Overall, the Gallup poll indicates that the race between Harris and Trump is neck and neck. Apart from image, ideology, and approaches, neither candidate holds overwhelming advantages over the other. Harris is also more popular within the Democratic Party than President Joe Biden, while Trump does not face the age issue haunting Biden.
85% of Democratic Party members and Democratic-leaning independents express overall satisfaction with Harris as their party’s presidential candidate. In June this year, just before President Biden withdrew from seeking re-election, only 34% of Democrats were satisfied with Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, with 65% hoping for a change.
Meanwhile, 73% of Republicans and Republican-leaning individuals are satisfied with Trump this year, a number matching that of 2020 but significantly surpassing 2016 when only 52% of Republicans were satisfied with him.
Earlier this year, Biden’s age was a potential campaign burden for the Democratic Party, with two-thirds of Americans deeming 81-year-old Biden too old for the presidency in June. Conversely, fewer people, only 37%, shared the same sentiment regarding 78-year-old Trump.
Although Trump faces a opponent 18 years younger in Harris, the proportion of voters who think Trump is too old has not changed significantly, currently standing at 41%.
Gallup report analysis suggests that if the election ultimately hinges on which candidate can perform better in the Oval Office, achieving better results, Trump may have the upper hand. However, if voters prioritize candidates’ personalities and characters more, Harris may have an advantage.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on October 10 shows that since President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign on July 21, Vice President Harris has taken a lead in both massive demographic groups, revitalizing the Democratic Party’s prospects in the upcoming election.
Suburban residents, constituting about half of American voters, are as diverse in race as the nation itself and are an important voter group. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden defeated Trump by roughly 6 percentage points among suburban voters.
Polls conducted in June and July by Reuters/Ipsos showed that before Biden withdrew, Trump led Biden by 3 percentage points among suburban residents, with 43% to 40%.
Since Harris launched her campaign at the end of July, this gap has narrowed. In polls from September and October, Harris leads Trump by 6 points among suburban voters, with 47% to 41%. An analysis of six Reuters/Ipsos polls, including responses from over 6,000 registered voters, shows a total 9-point swing in support for the Democratic Party.
During the same period, among households with incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 (about a third of the national middle class), Trump’s support dropped from 44% leading Biden by 7 points to now trailing Harris by 2 points with 43% to 45%. The Democrats also achieved a 9-point swing in this income group. The margin of error for these numbers is approximately 3 percentage points.
According to exit poll analysis by the Pew Research Center, Trump won this middle-income group with a 52% versus 47% advantage over Biden in 2020.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll reflects that voters see the economy as the top issue before the election. In an October poll, 46% of voters consider Trump a better candidate for the economy compared to 38% favoring Harris.
The poll also indicates that Trump is seen as a more trustworthy candidate on immigration and crime issues. In August this year, Trump told his supporters that he is a presidential candidate who will maintain suburban safety and ensure that illegal immigrants are kept “out of the suburbs.”
Trump blamed the Biden-Harris administration for damaging the interests of the middle class due to inflation. Meanwhile, Harris emphasized increasing the size of the middle class in her campaign speeches. She is also frequently seen as a better candidate for protecting democracy and opposing political extremism in polls.
David Wasserman, a political analyst at the Cook Political Report, told Reuters that Harris seems to be performing well among relatively affluent suburban residents who may be optimistic about the economy. The support for Harris among middle-income voters can be attributed to her frequent promises to help middle-class families with affordability throughout her campaign.
Wasserman said, “Her (Harris) focus on affordability has effectively narrowed Trump’s advantage in inflation and the economy.”
However, Wasserman also pointed out that the voter turnout in Democrat-leaning urban areas and Republican-leaning rural towns may also be crucial in determining the election outcome.
The latest poll conducted from October 4 to 7 shows that Harris leads Trump by 3 points among all registered voters, with 46% to 43%.
Harris’s slight lead nationwide is significant. In the latest poll released by The Economist on October 15, Harris leads Trump nationally with a 3.2-point advantage of 50.2% to 47.0%.
Still, winning the national popular vote, suburban voters, and middle-income voters does not guarantee being the ultimate winner. The final outcome of the US election will likely hinge on the seven battleground states, also known as swing states – Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Georgia.
In the 2016 election, Democrat Hillary Clinton received nearly 3 million more votes nationwide than Trump and won over Trump by about 1 percentage point in suburban counties. However, she still lost the election because Trump won the 6 swing states that had previously voted Democrat in 2012.
According to a recent poll released by Harvard CAPS/Harris on October 14, Trump’s support reaches 48% and Harris’s support is at 46% among all voters in key swing states.
With three weeks remaining until the election day, Harris and Trump have entered the final stage of an intense campaign. A few battleground states are likely to become key in deciding who will occupy the White House.
Mark Penn, co-director of the poll, states that Trump’s “battleground state strategy is paying off.” The survey shows that in early voting in key swing states, 49% of voters say they would choose Trump, while 47% would support Harris.
However, among all early voting voters nationwide, Harris leads Trump by a significant 8 points with 51% to 43%. Harris also holds a 1-point lead over Trump among all registered voters across the country.
In general, 45% of voters state they will cast their votes early, while 50% plan to vote on November 5, with the remaining 5% not intending to vote.
Moreover, the poll indicates that 60% of voters believe that the United States is on the wrong track, with 31% thinking it’s on the right track. 61% believe the country’s economy is on the wrong track, while 32% see it on the right track. Additionally, 60% of voters perceive the country’s economy as weak, while 40% view it as strong. 47% of voters say their personal economic situation is worsening, 28% believe it’s improving, and 24% have no impact.
51% of voters approve of Trump’s performance as president four years ago, while 49% approve of Harris’s current performance as vice president.
On October 13, Newsweek published an analysis suggesting that based on polling data shifts and odds given by betting companies, Trump could clinch a landslide victory on election day.
The article notes that with less than a month until election day, swing state polls have shown the race within the margin of error, providing any candidate a chance of sweeping all key swing states.
Until the past week, Harris maintained a 2 to 3 percentage points lead over Trump nationwide and held an advantage in four swing states. However, multiple recent polls have favored Trump more and more.
The ActiVote poll shows Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris nationwide, while the Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll indicates Trump leading in all swing states.
According to Real Clear Politics’ average of major national polls conducted from September 30 to October 13, Harris leads Trump by 1.4 percentage points nationwide, a decrease from the 2-point lead a week earlier.
Among the seven swing states, while Harris leads Trump by 0.3 percentage point in Wisconsin, Trump is ahead in the other six states with margins ranging from 0.2 to 1.1 points. This reflects a significant change from a week ago when Harris had an advantage in four swing states.
Tracking by polling expert Nate Silver has revealed that Trump has made progress in all swing states except Georgia over the past week, increasing the likelihood of a decisive victory for Trump.
What constitutes a “landslide victory”? While there is no exact definition, political scientist Gerald Hill told the Associated Press, “It usually means exceeding expectations and being somewhat irresistible.”
To achieve this “landslide victory,” Trump must win all seven key states, and flip one Democratic state. According to FiveThirtyEight’s data, after the swing states, the next most competitive state is Minnesota. In 2016, Trump narrowly missed winning Minnesota. Currently, Harris leads Trump by only 5.9 points in Minnesota.
Moreover, the online betting platform Polymarket indicates a 10% chance of Trump winning Minnesota on November 5. If Trump were to win all the swing states and Minnesota (10 electoral votes), he would secure 322 electoral votes to Harris’s 216, surpassing the 270 threshold for victory. This scenario would be considered a “landslide victory” for Trump.