Two weeks away from election day, the Middle East crisis continues to overshadow the U.S. presidential election. One presidential candidate is still struggling to find the right words to articulate the complex Middle East situation, while another boldly claims that this long-standing conflict can be resolved quickly.
Vice President Kamala Harris has been trying to maintain a delicate balance, expressing unwavering support for Israel while harshly condemning the civilian casualties caused by Israel’s strikes on Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, leading to a difficult and awkward position.
Former President Donald Trump has consistently emphasized that the Middle East crisis did not occur during his previous term in office, and if reelected, he can make all of this disappear.
At this moment, both candidates are vying for the support of Arab and Muslim American voters, as well as Jewish American voters, especially in key states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where the competition is particularly fierce.
Last weekend, Kamala Harris offended Israel with her comments about a pro-Palestinian protester. In a widely circulated video, Harris mentioned that the protester’s concerns were “very real,” leading some to interpret her remarks as sympathizing with the protester’s characterization of Israel’s military actions as “genocide.” Harris faced strong criticism from former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren.
Harris’s campaign team clarified that while the Vice President expressed solidarity with the plight of Gaza civilians, she did not and will not accuse Israel of committing genocide.
The situation flipped the day before, as Harris upset Palestinians. She told reporters that the “first and most tragic story” of the conflict was the attack by Hamas on October 7th last year, resulting in approximately 1,200 Israeli deaths. This statement sparked discontent among Palestinians who felt she did not pay enough attention to the over 41,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Trump recently gave interviews to Saudi Arabia’s Al-Arabiya and Lebanon’s MTV, promising to bring peace and claiming that “everything will be fine in Lebanon.”
On Monday (October 21), Trump took to social media to predict that if Harris becomes president, the situation in the Middle East will only worsen.
Trump stated on social media, “If Kamala Harris serves another four years, the Middle East will be engulfed in flames for the next forty years, your children will be sent to the battlefield, and a third world war may even break out; if President Donald Trump is in charge, none of this will happen. For our country, for your children, please vote for Trump and let there be world peace!”
Harris currently finds herself in a particularly awkward position. As Vice President, she must adhere to President Biden’s foreign policy decisions, even as she tries to exhibit a more empathetic stance across party lines.
Simultaneously, Harris’s aides and allies are disheartened by Trump’s seemingly unpredictable foreign policy statements that have been largely successful.
Given that political divisions arising in the presidential campaign could have significant implications post-election day, various forces in the Middle East, especially Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are closely monitoring election dynamics and potential changes in U.S. foreign policy.
According to the latest poll by the Associated Press-NORC, neither Trump nor Harris has a clear political advantage in the Middle East situation. Approximately 40% of registered voters believe Trump would do better, with a similar percentage favoring Harris. Around 20% of individuals believe neither candidate would handle the situation better.
Two-thirds of Democratic voters consider Harris the better choice for managing the Middle East situation. On the Republican side, about eight in ten people view Trump as the superior candidate.
Michigan, with its high concentration of Arab American residents, has been significantly impacted by the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Many community members have family in Lebanon and Gaza, with Detroit metropolitan resident Kamel Ahmad Jawad tragically losing his life while trying to deliver aid to his hometown in southern Lebanon. Many community members are urging the U.S. to demand an unconditional ceasefire from Israel and impose an arms embargo on them.
Although both parties staunchly support Israel, most of the public’s anger and criticism is directed at the Biden administration. When Harris entered the race, many Arab American leaders were initially optimistic, citing her past statements and early outreach efforts. However, this optimism quickly faded as community members felt her policies did not have enough differentiation from Biden’s.