On Tuesday, September 15, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the Saudi East-West oil pipeline could be restarted “in just a few days.” However, some sources believe that it may take weeks or even months for the pipeline to fully recover from the damage. Currently, major buyers like Poland have initiated emergency oil supply operations.
There is significant disagreement among parties on when the Saudi oil pipeline will resume operations. Satellite images show that one of the pumping stations along the pipeline was damaged.
During an interview with CNBC in Houston on Tuesday, Wright emphasized, “This will be a brief interruption, and the impact will be measured in days.” He also mentioned that the attack was orchestrated by an Iran-backed group, and Saudi Arabia has redirected some of its export shares back to the Persian Gulf supported by the US military.
In another interview with Bloomberg Television the day before, Wright also mentioned that Saudi Arabia is carefully assessing the extent of the damage and necessary measures to be taken, expecting clearer progress soon.
Industry insiders and informed officials hold a more pessimistic view. One source told Reuters that pipeline repairs could take 5 to 6 weeks, but partial oil capacity may be restored shortly after repairs; an anonymous informed official informed the Associated Press that repairs could take 3 to 5 weeks.
Andy Lipow, President of energy consultancy firm Lipow Oil Associates, believes that based on satellite images circulating online, the repair operations might take several months.
Matt Smith, Director of Commodity Research at data analysis agency Kpler, pointed out that the oil pipeline transports approximately 4 to 4.5 million barrels per day (about 4% of global supply) of crude oil to the Red Sea, and if the pipeline remains closed for a month, the global market could lose around 120 million barrels of crude oil supply.
Saudi officials have classified the pipeline shutdown as a “precautionary measure” and have not yet released a damage assessment report or specified how long the pipeline is expected to remain closed. Saudi Aramco, the Saudi national oil company, has not provided any comments on this matter.
Over the past 6 months, Saudi Arabia has been using the East-West oil pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz blockade and distribute crude oil to the Red Sea’s Yanbu port for further shipment to other countries. Now, Saudi Arabia has completely suspended crude loading operations at the Red Sea’s Yanbu port.
According to oil trading and shipping sources, Saudi Arabia is attempting to adopt a “ghost ship” shipping model similar to the UAE and Iraq to increase crude oil export volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Using this shipping method, oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf maintain daily export volumes of 7 to 9 million barrels, equivalent to 30% to 40% of pre-war level exports.
Data from energy analytics firm Vortexa shows that during the week of September 7 to 13, Saudi Arabia loaded 22 million barrels of crude oil via 12 ships at Ras Tanura and Juaymah, significantly higher than the average of 6 to 7 ships per week in the previous three weeks.
Saudi Arabia previously informed European buyers of the cancellation of some September crude shipments, with many European customers actively seeking alternative solutions. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the current trading price of Brent crude futures has reached around $108 per barrel, previously surpassing $120.
The impact on Polish energy giant PKN Orlen, which operates refineries in Poland, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic, is particularly direct. Since 2022, the company has relied on Saudi Aramco as its largest supplier (making up about 40% of supply) to reduce dependence on Russian oil, but is now facing the risk of disruption in the crude oil supply chain.
Currently, PKN Orlen is urgently seeking crude oil cargoes to fill the gap left by the Saudi crude interruption. Five industry insiders informed Reuters that PKN Orlen has purchased several batches of North Sea crude from Grane, Johan Sverdrup, and Johan Castberg, as well as US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland and Kazakh CPC Blend crude as alternative solutions.
PKN Orlen declined to comment on specific commercial transactions but emphasized that it is actively adjusting its supply portfolio to ensure the normal supply of crude oil to its refineries.