The effects of the redistricting in California in 2025 are becoming evident in the primary election results as of June 4. Out of the 52 congressional districts, there are 47 seats (92%) where the Democratic Party holds the advantage. The final results of the California primary will only be confirmed a month later.
After the 2024 election, the Republican Party in California had 9 seats in Congress (17%), compared to 12 seats (23%) in 2022. Despite Republicans making up more than 33% of registered voters in California, they are now only projected to secure 4 seats in the primary, about 8% of the total.
Currently, the Republican Party only holds the advantage in the 5th, 20th, 23rd, and 40th congressional districts. Incumbent Congressmen Tom McClintock, Vince Fong, and Jay Obernolte are leading in the primaries and are expected to be re-elected.
In the 40th district, incumbent Republican Congressmen Ken Calvert and Kim Young were drawn into the same district due to redistricting, and they will compete in the November runoff.
The table below shows the top two candidates in each district, with the far-right column indicating the total vote percentage for all Democratic candidates in that district. The current voter turnout for the California primary is at 24.6%, below the typical 33%, with Los Angeles County at 25%, Orange County at 30.3%, San Diego at 28.9%, and Riverside County at 20%.
Redistricting, voter turnout, and the party affiliation of voters will all influence the election results. The voter turnout for the November election may double, potentially exceeding 67%. According to data from the California Policy Center in February 2025, about 43% of registered voters are Democrats, 34.5% are Republicans, 18% are independent voters, and over 5% are affiliated with third parties.
In eight districts, the Democrats hold only a slight advantage. If more voters in these districts choose non-Democratic candidates, it could lead to different outcomes and introduce variables into the election.
As of June 4, in the 1st district, former California Assembly Republican leader James Gallagher is leading with 47.2%, while the total Democratic vote share is 51.7%. The 1st district also has a special election to fill the vacancy left by the late Congressman Doug LaMalfa, in which Gallagher received 62% of the vote and will serve until the end of the year.
In the 3rd district, incumbent Democratic Congressman Ami Bera from the 6th district is in second place with 33.0%. Republican candidate Robb Tucker, a Nevada County supervisor, is leading with 34.3%. However, Democrats received 50.7% of the vote in this district.
In the 6th district, incumbent 3rd district Republican Congressman Kevin Kiley is leading as an independent candidate with 26.8%. The top two vote-getters, Kiley and the Republican Michael Stansfield, will advance to the November election. The total Democratic vote share in this district is around 51%.
In the 42nd district, incumbent Democratic Congressman Robert Garcia is leading with 52.3% and is expected to win re-election in November. The Democratic vote share in this district is 52.3%.
The other four districts are all in Orange County or neighboring counties. In the 45th district, incumbent Democratic Congressman Derek Tran leads with 50.1%, while former Los Angeles County Cerritos Mayor and Republican Chuong Vo is in second place with 16.1%. The total Democratic vote share in this district is 50.1%.
In the 47th district, Democratic candidate Dave Min is leading with 43.2%, followed by Republican candidate Jenny Rae Le Roux with 26.4%. The Democratic vote share in this district is 51%.
In the 48th district, Democratic candidate Marni von Wilpert is in second place with 19.5%, while Republican candidate Jim Desmond, a San Diego County Supervisor, is leading with 41.4%. The total Democratic vote share in this district is 50.4%. Prior to the redistricting, Republican Darrell E. Issa won with 59.3% in 2024 but is not running this year.
In the 49th district, incumbent Democratic Congressman Mike Levin is leading with 51.7%, followed by Republican candidate Armen Kurdian with 29.2%. The Democratic vote share in this district is 51.7%.