May 20th is a day of significant events in Taiwan as President Lai Ching-te and Vice President Hsiao Mei-chin are inaugurated. It is also on this day that the former Iranian President, Raisi, who went missing after boarding a helicopter, is confirmed to have been killed in an accident. The Iranian Foreign Minister and the governor of East Azerbaijan province are among the other victims. Rescue teams have located the wreckage of the helicopter, with officials previously stating that the helicopter was “completely burned,” indicating the tragic fate of the passengers.
Raisi, aged 63, was a hardliner in Iran, closely tied to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and had previously served as the head of the judiciary. He won the 2021 election with the support of Khamenei and was seen as a potential successor to him. After Raisi’s demise, political figures from non-Western countries and international organizations have expressed condolences in a customary manner. However, what stands out is the deep sorrow expressed by the leaders of China and Russia over the loss of this “good friend.”
Xi Jinping, in a condolence message to Iran’s First Vice President Muqbel, expressed the nation’s “deep mourning” for Raisi, praising him for his “active efforts to strengthen and develop the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Iran,” stating that Raisi’s death had caused the Chinese Communist Party to “lose a good friend.” The message ended with the belief that the “comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Iran will surely continue to strengthen and develop.”
On the other hand, Putin, in a message to Khamenei, not only expressed “deep mourning” but also hailed Raisi as an “outstanding politician” and a “genuine friend of Russia,” attributing valuable personal contributions to the development of neighborly relations and the achievement of a strategic partnership level between the two countries.
The high praise given by Putin and Xi Jinping in their condolence messages to Raisi indicates that during his presidency, Iran became more anti-American compared to his predecessor, leading to deteriorating relations with the West and closer ties with China and Russia. Under his leadership, Iran became a formal member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization initiated by China and Russia, an early member of the BRICS countries initiated by China and Russia, and a key participant in the Eurasian Economic Union initiated by countries of the former Soviet Union. Iran also restored and strengthened diplomatic relations with some Arab and African countries. It was reported that just hours before the helicopter crash, Raisi reiterated Iran’s support for Palestinians and ordered an increase in oil production to surpass sanction levels, reaching 3.4 million barrels per day.
During Raisi’s presidency, Iran covertly supported Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians and conducted its first large-scale operation against Israel by firing rockets from its territory. It can be said that during Raisi’s term as president, Iran was vocal in its anti-American stance, and Iran-Russia, Iran-China relations reached unprecedented levels. For instance, trade volume between Moscow and Tehran increased to $4 billion, with both countries implementing visa-free travel for tourists and enhancing political and military interactions, with Iran supporting Russia in its aggressive warfare.
In September 2023, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu visited Tehran and met with the head of the Iran Revolutionary Guard’s aerospace division. In November, Iran claimed to have reached a final agreement with Russia on fighter jet trade and pilot training. In December, Putin met Raisi during his visit to Moscow. In January of this year, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that the two countries would soon sign a comprehensive new cooperation treaty.
Iranian sources revealed to foreign media that at the end of 2023, military and security officials from Iran and Russia held meetings in Tehran and Moscow, finalizing an agreement where Iran began shipping missiles to Russia starting in early January. According to Reuters on February 21st, Iran provided Russia with around 400 ballistic missiles, including a significant amount of the “Fateh-110” series of precision-guided missiles.
While Iran-Russia relations were warming up, Iran-China relations were also rapidly developing. In 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement, covering various sectors including energy and infrastructure. This agreement was also part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, as reported by Agence France-Presse.
In February 2023, Raisi visited Beijing where Xi Jinping warmly welcomed him with cannons, red carpets, and unprecedented hospitality, prompting Raisi to specifically thank the Chinese leaders for their “enthusiastic and generous reception” and emphasizing the “traditional friendship” between the two nations, stating that both have endured “various international challenges” and expressing support for Iran to uphold its legitimate rights.
Furthermore, the Chinese authorities and the Iranian side issued a joint statement covering five areas including political, security and defense, economic and development cooperation, education and cultural cooperation, as well as international and regional issues. In the security and defense domain, the statement openly declared mutual intent to strengthen military cooperation, emphasizing enhanced strategic communication between defense departments, various levels of military exchanges, joint training exercises, and personnel training.
The statement also openly defended Iran on the nuclear issue, stressing that “lifting sanctions and ensuring the economic benefits for Iran is an essential component of a comprehensive agreement, and all relevant sanctions should be fully lifted in a verifiable manner.”
Beijing’s stance and statement sent a strong signal to the US, Europe, and the world that China stands shoulder to shoulder with Iran. Clearly, under Raisi’s leadership, Iran was in the process of forming a new axis with China, Russia, and possibly North Korea to counter the West. Western nations that have acknowledged this shift have been gathering strength to resist these regimes that oppose the values of human civilization. With Raisi’s sudden demise, will this aid Western countries in their efforts?
It is widely believed in Iranian politics that there are three main pillars: the Supreme Leader, the President, and the Iran Revolutionary Guard. While Khamenei controls Iran’s foreign and domestic policies, Raisi executed these policies. With Raisi’s unexpected death, questions arise as to whether the elderly, frail, and even rumored-to-be-deceased Khamenei can maintain control over Iran’s affairs.
The New York Times pointed out that following several major anti-government demonstrations in Iran over the past two years, especially after the death of a 22-year-old woman, Amini in 2022, while in the custody of the morality police, which sparked months-long nationwide protests. Although these protests were suppressed, public sentiment cannot be ignored. In January this year, a terrorist attack occurred during Iran’s commemoration of the slain senior military commander Soleimani by the US, resulting in over 80 deaths and more than 200 injuries.
In addition to long-term sanctions from the US, mismanagement by the Iranian government, and issues of corruption, Iran’s economy has been in turmoil. Inflation has persistently been high, often surpassing 30%, and the Iranian currency hit historic lows during the Persians’ New Year celebrations in late March. Furthermore, during the parliamentary elections in March, millions refused to vote, leading to an increase in far-right votes.
With Raisi’s sudden passing and the upcoming elections, what changes could be expected within Iranian society and the government? If internal turmoil arises in Iran, there is a possibility of disrupting the plans by China, Russia, and Iran to form an axis against the West. This might be the reason behind Putin and Xi Jinping lamenting the loss of their “good friend” Raisi.