According to a United Nations report cited by the media, 25 years after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, with the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, al-Qaeda is taking advantage of the situation to regroup in Afghanistan, having established at least 8 new strongholds and training camps in the past three years.
“The Washington Post” reported on Saturday (September 12), citing UN organization reports and information from American and Western security officials, that the Taliban’s return to power has created a “permissive environment,” allowing al-Qaeda to solidify its presence once again by setting up training camps and safehouses across Afghanistan.
The report, compiled by a UN agency responsible for monitoring terrorist networks, revealed that in just the past three years, al-Qaeda and its affiliates have established at least 8 strongholds in Afghanistan.
Security officials indicate that these camps primarily train armed militants in the use of weapons, explosives, guerrilla tactics, as well as skills involving encryption technology, artificial intelligence, drones, and other modern technologies.
Colin Smith, coordinator of the UN monitoring group, estimates that the core membership of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan is likely fewer than 100 individuals at present.
He noted that the organization now acts more as a “consulting service,” providing information security advice and training for other terrorist organizations and groups.
Specifically, al-Qaeda is supporting the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). A UN report in 2024 indicated that al-Qaeda members in Kunar province in Afghanistan were “training for suicide bombings to support the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.”
Smith estimates that TTP has as many as 7,000 armed fighters in Afghanistan.
The UN report states that with the participation of al-Qaeda and the Taliban, these organizations have established training camps in at least four provinces in Afghanistan, initiating hundreds of cross-border attacks within Pakistan.
Simultaneously, another terrorist organization, the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K or ISIS-K), is also increasing its strength.
Security officials and the UN report highlight that the organization has recruited approximately 2,000 new fighters, using northern Afghanistan as a central hub for training and planning operations in Central Asia.
Despite fierce competition between al-Qaeda and ISIS for global influence, they are now primarily focused on recruiting individuals from Afghanistan and neighboring countries, unlike the large-scale recruitment of foreign fighters in the 1990s.
Sara Harmouch, a terrorism expert from George Washington University, notes that based on propaganda materials, al-Qaeda currently seems to avoid directly bringing in foreign fighters to avoid attracting attention during their resurgence.
Counter-terrorism experts suggest that these terrorist organizations are currently more focused on regional conflicts rather than launching global attacks, and they are also constrained by the Taliban’s reluctance to invite international intervention again.
Bruce Hoffman, a counter-terrorism expert from Georgetown University, stated, “They are not following the pre-9/11 strategy of striking at the ‘far enemy.’ However, they hope to rebuild momentum through progress at the local and regional levels. They have not forgotten about us.”
The current leader of al-Qaeda, Saif al-Adel, is believed to be hiding in Iran.
In 2022, the United States used drones to kill former leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, demonstrating that Washington still possesses intelligence and strike capabilities in Afghanistan.
However, following the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2021, intelligence capabilities, including the CIA, have been reduced, making monitoring of terrorist training camps more challenging.
Security officials warn that the resurgence of al-Qaeda’s training camps echoes the missed opportunities before 9/11 when the U.S. failed to destroy the Afghan training camps.
According to the 9/11 Commission report, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, a leader of al-Qaeda, first proposed the plan to hijack planes and crash them into U.S. buildings at an al-Qaeda camp in Tora Bora, Afghanistan, in 1996. Osama bin Laden later approved the plan near Kandahar.
All 19 hijackers involved in the 9/11 attacks had spent time in al-Qaeda training camps or safehouses in Afghanistan before carrying out their attack plans in the United States.