Brazil: Presidential Candidate’s Plan to Reduce Chinese Dependency on Processing System Revealed
A document bearing the campaign logo of presidential candidate Bolsonaro recently surfaced in Brazil, proposing to establish a rare earth supply chain with the United States to decrease reliance on China’s processing system. However, there are conflicting opinions among the document’s author and related individuals regarding whether it represents the official stance of the campaign team.
According to reports by Brazilian media outlet Amado Mundo, the 22-page English presentation was drafted on March 19 this year by André Marinho, an ally of Brazilian senator and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. The content involves Brazil’s cooperation with the United States to develop a rare earth supply chain.
Each page of the presentation is marked with “Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026 Campaign” and titled “Prosperity Partnership.” The document suggests that if Flávio Bolsonaro assumes office, Brazil will cease selling unprocessed ores abroad to avoid structural reliance on China in processing and instead establish an alternative supply system with the United States.
It is proposed in the document that this cooperation could provide the United States with rare earth materials needed for artificial intelligence, defense, and energy transformation, while making Brazil one of the top three rare earth suppliers globally outside of China, attracting up to $100 billion in mining investments over the next decade.
Marinho admitted to writing the document himself but denied submitting it to U.S. officials or having any formal association with Bolsonaro’s campaign activities. He mentioned being invited to Dallas, USA in March to discuss the possibility of Rockbridge Network, a conservative donor network founded by former U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance in 2019, establishing a branch in Brazil, but the plan was abandoned in May.
Simultaneously with the document’s exposure, actual progress has been made in U.S.-Brazil cooperation in the rare earth sector. The U.S. Department of Defense announced on August 24th that it would invest $750 million into a special purpose company acquiring rare earth products from Brazil’s Serra Verde, with additional procurement commitments of $300 million and $500 million in bank financing arrangements, totaling $1.55 billion for the project.
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) had previously provided $565 million in financing support for Serra Verde. Located in the state of Goiás, Brazil, the Pela Ema project of Serra Verde produces magnetic rare earth elements including dysprosium, terbium, neodymium, and praseodymium. The company plans to start delivering related products to the U.S. from the fourth quarter of this year.
Brazil is one of the world’s major rare earth resource countries, and the U.S. has been seeking to expand its rare earth supply from non-Chinese sources in recent years. In February this year, the U.S. government held a crucial ministerial-level meeting on critical minerals, proposing to establish a diversified and stable critical minerals and rare earth supply chain, which Brazil also participated in.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data for 2026, Brazil has approximately 21 million tons of rare earth reserves, second only to China’s 44 million tons, ranking as the world’s second largest. In 2025, Brazil produced about 2,000 tons of rare earth ore, while China produced around 270,000 tons, indicating that although Brazil possesses vast rare earth reserves, its current extraction scale is still significantly lower than China.
Alongside the document’s exposure, allegations have emerged in Brazil about whether Rockbridge Network provided funding to Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign. Presidential candidate Renan Santos claimed this month that the organization had funded Bolsonaro’s campaign, but two Brazilian individuals named by him denied the allegations. Entrepreneur Tallis Gomes, one of the individuals accused, even filed a criminal defamation lawsuit over the related statements.
Currently, publicly available data from the Brazilian Electoral Court does not indicate any U.S. funds entering Bolsonaro’s campaign. Records show that around 48.17 million Brazilian Reais (approximately $9.4 million) were declared as campaign funds, with 95% coming from his political party. According to Brazilian law, companies and foreign entities are prohibited from providing campaign funds to candidates, and if foreign funding is confirmed, it could trigger further legal proceedings.
Flávio Bolsonaro has emerged as the primary competitor to current president Lula. The latest polling by the renowned Brazilian polling agency Datafolha shows Lula leading the first round with 39% to 35%; in a potential runoff, Lula leads with 46% against Bolsonaro’s 44%, with the difference within the margin of error. Other recent polls have shown Bolsonaro holding a slight lead.
The presidential election in Brazil is heating up as the dynamics between Lula and Bolsonaro are closely contested.
(Source: Brazilian Presidential Election Intensifies, Polls Show Lula and Bolsonaro Tied)